995
AXNT20 KNHC 151807 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Jul 15 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic extending from 07N to 21N
with axis near 34W, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 25W and
35W.

A tropical wave is just E of the Lesser Antilles extending from
07N to 20N with axis near 55W, moving westward at around 15 kt.
There is no significant convection associated with this wave as
its environment is under the influence of the Saharan Air Layer
dry air.

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis S of 21N near
78W, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is occurring in and near the Windward Passage and just
N of eastern Cuba. There is no significant convection associated
with this wave either as its environment is under the influence
of dry air and strong wind shear.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border
of western Sahara/Mauritania, then continues southwestward to
10N23W to 12N44W to 08N58W. There is no ITCZ present based on
the latest analysis. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N
to 12N between 13W and 25W, from 10N to 15N between 45W and 50W,
and from 05N to 11N between 50W and 60W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure centered just south of Louisiana and a weak
pressure gradient across the Gulf of Mexico is supporting light
to gentle variable winds and slight seas. Otherwise, a surface
trough extending from the Florida Panhandle to SE Louisiana is
generating heavy showers and tstms over the NE Gulf coastal and
offshore waters. Similar shower activity is ongoing in the Bay
of Campeche associated with another surface trough.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will dominate the Gulf of
Mexico through the week supporting moderate or weaker winds and
mainly slight seas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move
westward through the Straits of Florida tonight through Tue,
behind the northern portion of a tropical wave that is currently
along 78W this morning.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong ENE to E winds and 7 to 9 ft seas continue in
the south-central and portions of the SW basin under the
influence of the Bermuda High and associated ridge. Elsewhere
across the basin, mainly moderate E winds prevail with seas of 4
to 7 ft. Otherwise, a tropical wave is starting to approach
Central America. There is not significant convection associated
with this wave N of 14N, however the E Pac monsoon trough is
supporting heavy showers and tstms across the offshore waters of
N Panama, Costa Rica and Nicaragua.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high
pressure located east of Bermuda and lower pressure across South
America will continue to sustain fresh to strong trade winds
over the central Caribbean through the week. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms will move westward across the NW basin tonight
through Tue, behind the northern portion of a tropical wave that
is currently along 78W this morning. Winds will pulse to fresh
this evening and tonight in the Windward Passage.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The subtropical Atlantic waters are under the influence of the
Bermuda-Azores High which is supporting gentle to moderate E to
SE winds over the central and western regions along with
moderate seas. Northeast winds of similar speed are over the E
subtropical waters, except for fresh to strong NE winds between
the coast of NW Africa and the Canary Islands where seas are
likely rough to 8 ft. Otherwise, a surface trough supports
scattered showers and tstms N of 27N between 58W and 65W and in
the Great Bahama Bank.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda high pressure ridge
will extend southwestward to central Florida into late week.
Winds are forecast to increase to fresh speeds over the
southeastern waters starting late on Wed as the high pressure
strengthens some, and a tropical wave moves through tropical
Atlantic waters. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move
westward through the Bahama Banks and Straits of Florida today
through Tue, behind the northern portion of a tropical wave that
is currently along 78W this morning.

$$
Ramos