228
AXNT20 KNHC 170458
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Jul 17 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0440 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 42W from 20N southward,
moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 04N to 08N between
40W and 45W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65W, from 21N southward,
moving westward 15 knots to 20 knots. Precipitation: isolated
moderate is from 21N southward between 60W and 70W.

A tropical wave is moving through the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico. The wave is along 92W, from 19N southward, moving westward
15 knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered
strong is in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, between the tropical wave
and 95W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal
near 14N17W, to 11N30W and 08N39W. The ITCZ is along 08N/09N
between 47W and 59W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 06N to the monsoon trough
between Africa and 35W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is
from 04N to 14N between 47W and 60W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge passes through 28N72W in the Atlantic Ocean, along
28N in Florida, to 27N94W in the NW part of the Gulf. Slight seas,
and moderate or slower winds, are everywhere. Broad upper level
cyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf waters. Upper level anticyclonic
wind flow is on top of Florida. Weakening convective precipitation
around Florida from the last few hours continues to become weaker
and dissipate.

Atlantic high pressure will extend a weak ridge westward into the
northern Gulf of Mexico through the weekend, supporting moderate
or weaker winds and mainly slight seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough passes through the SE Bahamas near 22N72W,
through the Windward Passage, to 16N75W. Upper level cyclonic wind
flow is in the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 57W
westward. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea
from 14N northward from the Windward Passage westward.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
between 77W and 80W within 75 nm of the southern side of Cuba; and
from 14N to 17N between 87W and 90W that includes parts of
Nicaragua, the Gulf of Honduras, Belize, and Guatemala.

The monsoon trough is along 10N74W in Colombia, beyond southern
Costa Rica, and into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered
strong is from 06N to 08N between 77W and 79W in Colombia.
Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is in Colombia and
Venezuela from 08N to 10N between 72W and 75W. Isolated moderate
to locally strong is within 120 nm to the north of the monsoon
trough between 80W and 84W in the coastal areas of Panama and
Costa Rica.

Fresh to strong SE to NE winds, and mostly moderate to near-high
seas, are between 66W and 81W. Fresh to strong easterly winds are
within 60 nm of the Atlantic Ocean side coast of Hispaniola
between 70W and 73W. Moderate or slower winds, and slight to
moderate seas, are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.

The pressure gradient between an Atlantic high pressure ridge
extending along 30N/31N and lower pressure across South America
will continue to sustain fresh to strong trade winds over the
central Caribbean before diminishing slightly Thu into Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is along 27N70W 22N72W, to the Windward Passage.
Upper level cyclonic wind flow is in the Atlantic Ocean from 20N
northward from 57W westward. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is between 55W and 74W.

A surface trough is along 31N24W 27N30W. Little to no deep
convective precipitation accompanies this surface trough.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow surrounds the 42W tropical wave,
from 10N to 21N between 37W and 50W. Comparatively drier air in
subsidence covers much of the area of the upper level cyclonic
wind flow.

Strong N to NE winds are from 21N to 24N between Africa and 23W.
Mostly fresh to some strong NE winds are from 15N to 29N between
24W and 50W. Fresh E to SE winds are from 15N to 27N between 50W
and 60W. Fresh to strong easterly winds are within 60 nm of the
Atlantic Ocean side coast of Hispaniola between 70W and 73W.
Fresh winds are elsewhere from 20N to 24N between 64W and 74W.
Mostly fresh SW winds are from 02N to 11N from 20W eastward.
Fresh SE to S winds are from 01N to 05N between 26W and 31W.
Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic
Ocean. Moderate seas cover the entire area.

The Bermuda high pressure ridge will extend W-SW to Central
Florida into Fri night. Winds will increase to fresh over the
southeastern waters Wed through late Fri as the high pressure
strengthens some and a tropical wave moves through regional
waters. Look for winds to pulse to strong each evening offshore of
the N coast of Hispaniola Thu through Sat.

$$
MT