442
AXNT20 KNHC 172352
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Jul 18 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 05N to
20N with axis near 50W, moving westward at 15 kt. The wave is
embedded in dry Saharan air, thus limiting the development of
showers and thunderstorms.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis S of 21N
near 71W, moving west at 10-15 kt. Strong vertical shear is
hindering the development of convection at the time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of NW
Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 10N35W to
10N54W. The ITCZ extends from 10N54W to 11N61W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 07N to 14N between 13W and 32W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A generally weak pressure gradient prevails across the Gulf of
Mexico under the influence of the Bermuda High and associated
ridge. This pattern is supporting light to gentle variable winds
and slight seas, except for moderate to locally fresh NE to E
winds off the coast of western Yucatan into the Bay of Campeche.
Otherwise, moisture inflow from the Caribbean and upper level
divergence continue to fuel scattered showers and thunderstorms
across the north-central and northeast basin where also a surface
trough is analized.

For the forecast, high pressure will extend from the western
Atlantic into the northern Gulf of Mexico into early next week,
supporting gentle to moderate winds and slight seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between an Atlantic high pressure ridge
extending along roughly 30N and lower pressure across South
America are supporting fresh to strong trade winds over the
central Caribbean, along with moderate to rough seas. Over the
eastern basin, trade winds are gentle to moderate while in the NW
Caribbean winds are light to gentle. Otherwise, scattered heavy
showers and tstms are ongoing over the offshore zones of Panama
and Costa Rica in association with the E Pacific extension of the
monsoon trough. Scattered showers and tstms are also ongoing over
Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic adjacent waters.

For the forecast, winds and seas will diminish slightly across the
central Caribbean Thu into Sat as a pair of tropical waves move
through the basin. The tradewinds and associated seas will
increase again Sun and Mon as high pressure builds again in the
wake of the tropical waves.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The subtropical Atlantic waters remain under the influence of the
Bermuda High and associated ridge, which is mainly supporting
gentle to moderate NE to E winds and moderate seas, except between
44W and 60W where the passage of a tropical wave tightens the
pressure gradient, thus freshening the winds. In this region, seas
are 7-8 ft. Otherwise, a middle-level short-wave trough supports
heavy showers and scattered tstms across the Bahamas offshore
waters between 60W and 68W.

For the forecast W of 55W, the Bermuda high pressure ridge will
extend east to west along roughly 30N through Mon. This pattern
will support moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 25N through
Mon, with strong winds occasionally pulsing off the northern
coast of Hispaniola.

$$
Ramos/Adams