800
AXNT20 KNHC 181648
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Jul 18 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W from 21N southward,
moving quickly W at 20-25 kt. No significant convection is noted
with the tropical wave at this time.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 77W, from eastern Cuba
across Jamaica to far NW Colombia, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is from the coast of Panama north to 13N east
of 81W to the coast of Colombia. Scattered showers are noted along
the south coast of Jamaica.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the border of Senegal and The
Gambia near 13N17W and continues to 10N33W to 10N56W. Scattered
showers are along the monsoon trough. No segments of the ITCZ are
analyzed at this time.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from the central Florida Panhandle over
the northern coastal Gulf waters to 28N92W. Scattered moderate
convection is north of 28N between 84W and 94W. High pressure
ridging extends across the basin from the subtropical Atlantic
high. As a result, light to gentle E to SE winds prevail across
the basin with 2-4 ft seas. Winds may be locally moderate in the
Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, high pressure will extend from the western
Atlantic into the northern Gulf of Mexico through early next week,
supporting mainly gentle winds and slight seas. Unstable
atmospheric conditions with active weather will persist across the
northern Gulf through Fri as an upper trough continues to the N
of the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Tropical Waves section above for details on
tropical waves and convection.

Scattered moderate convection is from 11N to 14N west of 82W,
including inland over Nicaragua. Moderate to fresh trades are
noted in the central Caribbean, with 6-8 ft seas. Recent satellite
scatterometer data indicates locally fresh winds along the south
coast of Jamaica. In the eastern and western Caribbean, gentle to
moderate trades prevail with 3-6 ft seas.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between an Atlantic high
pressure ridge extending along roughly 30N and lower pressure
across South America is supporting fresh to locally strong trade
winds over the central Caribbean, with mainly moderate seas. Winds
and seas will diminish slightly tonight through Sat as a pair of
tropical waves move through the basin. The trade winds and
associated seas will increase again Sat night into Mon as high
pressure builds again in the wake of the tropical waves.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The tropical Atlantic is dominated by 1028 mb high pressure
centered near 32N54W. Fresh trades, part of a trade wind surge
near a tropical wave, has built seas to 7-8 ft from 16N to 25N
between 50W and 65W. Elsewhere, satellite scatterometer data from
this morning depicts gentle to moderate trades. Seas are 4-7 ft in
open waters.

For the forecast W of 55W, the Bermuda high pressure ridge will
extend east to west along roughly 30N through Mon night. This
pattern will support moderate to fresh easterly winds south of
25N, with winds pulsing to strong during the late afternoon and
evening off the northern coast of Hispaniola.

$$
Mahoney/Adams