981
AXNT20 KNHC 202208
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Jul 21 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 31W from 20N southward,
and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is
noted near this tropical wave.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 77W from eastern Cuba
and Jamaica southward into eastern Panama. It is moving westward
at near 20 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring
between Jamaica and eastern Cuba.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W, then extends southwestward to 09N50W. An
ITCZ continues westward from 09N50W to 10N60W. Saharan dust is
suppressing any significant convection.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough reaches across the northwest Gulf from Vermilion
Bay, Louisiana, to off South Padre Island, Texas. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are active west of the trough, over much
of the northern Gulf. The Atlantic ridge extends westward across
Florida into the eastern Gulf. This pattern is supporting light to
gentle breezes and slight seas across the basin.

For the forecast, the ridge will remain in place across the Gulf
waters over the next several days. It will support gentle to
locally moderate E to SE winds and slight seas. Pulsing moderate
to fresh winds are expected near and to the northwest of the
Yucatan Peninsula during the evening and night hours due to local
effects. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
expected over the Straits of Florida Sun night as a tropical wave
passes to the south.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Atlantic high pressure is building over the eastern Caribbean
following through tropical wave that extends from Jamaica to
eastern Panama. This pattern is supporting fresh to strong trade
winds off northwest Venezuela and northeast Colombia. Moderate to
fresh trade winds are noted elsewhere over the eastern and central
Caribbean. Gentle to moderate E winds are noted elsewhere over the
basin. Combined seas are 5 to 7 ft in the central Caribbean, and 3
to 5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the tropical wave will move through the western
Caribbean tonight through Mon afternoon. High pressure from the
central Atlantic will continue to build in its wake, with
fresh to strong winds and building seas, possibly peaking to 10
ft over the south-central Caribbean on Mon. The trade winds and
associated seas will diminish slightly on Tue, then increase
across the eastern and central Caribbean for the remainder of the
forecast period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level trough reaches southwestward from a low southeast
of Bermuda near 30N66W across the central Bahamas to central
Cuba. Divergent winds related these features are enhancing
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms along an associated
surface trough moving through the southern Bahamas and
Turks/Caicos Islands. At the surface, the pattern is dominated by
1028 mb high pressure centered near 32N57W. The gradient between
the high pressure and the surface trough is supporting fresh to
strong E to SE winds on the north coast of Hispaniola. Gentle to
moderate E to SE winds are noted elsewhere across the basin west
of 35W. Combined seas are 6 to 8 ft in E swell across Atlantic
waters from 10N to 25N between 50W and 75W, 4 to 6 ft elsewhere
west of 35W. Gentle to moderate NE winds persist east of 35W,
except for fresh to strong winds off northwest Africa and the
Canary Islands, with mostly 4 to 6 ft combined seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic surface ridge will
continue to dominate the Atlantic forecast waters through the
weekend, then lift north to near 30N early next week. The related
pressure gradient will support moderate to fresh easterly winds
south of 26N, with winds pulsing to strong during the late
afternoons and evenings off the northern coast of Hispaniola into
next week. Numerous thunderstorms over the waters south of 25N
between 68W and 74W are associated with an upper-level low and a
surface trough while the northern portion of a tropical wave is
over eastern Cuba. These features along with the thunderstorm
activity will continue to shift westward reaching the waters
between the Bahamas and Cuba, including the Straits of Florida
late Sun into Mon. Some of the thunderstorms may produce strong
gusty winds and rough seas.

$$
Christensen