928
AXNT20 KNHC 191015
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Jul 19 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is added to the 0600 UTC surface map based on
satellite imagery and the Hovmoller Diagram. A broad cyclonic
circulation is associated with this wave that is producing some
shower activity.

A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean along 62W from 20N
southward, moving westward at 20 to 25 kt. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are near the wave axis. The wave appears
to enhance convection over eastern Venezuela.

Another tropical wave is moving westward across the western
Caribbean at about 20 kt. Its axis is along 83W/84W. The wave is
producing scattered showers and thunderstorms. This convective
activity is affecting parts of Honduras, eastern Nicaragua, Costa
Rica and western Panama as well as the waters from 15N to 19N
between 80W and 87W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal
near 15N17W to 10N35W to 07N54W. scattered moderate convection is
noted near 13N20W, from 08N t0 10N between 30W and 37W, and from
06N to 10N between 50W and 54W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the Gulf waters producing mainly light to gentle
winds and slight seas. An upper-level trough is supporting a few
showers and thunderstorms across the basin. Convection increases
along the Mexican coast S of 22N due to a diffluent pattern aloft.

For the forecast, the Atlantic high pressure will extend across
Florida into the Gulf of Mexico through early next week. This
system will support gentle to locally moderate winds and slight
seas. Pulsing moderate to fresh winds are expected near and to the
NW of the Yucatan Peninsula during the evening and night hours
due to local effects.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving westward across the Caribbean Sea.
Please, see the Tropical Waves section above for more details.

Recent scatterometer and buoy observations confirmed the presence
of fresh to strong trade winds and seas to 8 ft south of Jamaica
and Hispaniola. These winds are the result of the pressure gradient
between the Atlantic high pressure and the Colombian low. Gentle
to moderate trade winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted elsewhere
across the basin, except in the SW Caribbean where mainly light
winds and slight seas prevail. African dust dominates most of the
tropical Atlantic based on the Saharan Air Layer tracking product
from CIMSS.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic high
pressure and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong
trade winds over the central Caribbean, with mainly moderate seas.
Winds and seas will diminish slightly through early Sat as a
tropical wave moves through the basin. The trade winds and
associated seas will increase again Sat through Mon as high
pressure builds again in the wake of the tropical wave.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Bermuda-Azores High dominates the Atlantic forecast region with
a 1027 mb high pressure center near 32N54W. A wind surge of fresh
to strong speeds with seas of 8 to 9 ft is noted between the high
pressure and the tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean.
These winds are affecting mainly the waters from 19N to 24N between
55W and 65W. Fresh to strong winds are also noted off the N coast
of Hispaniola based on scatterometer data. Gentle to moderate
winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are noted elsewhere across the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High will extend
east to west along roughly 30N through Tue. This pattern will
support moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 26N, with winds
pulsing to strong during the late afternoon and evening off the
northern coast of Hispaniola.

$$
GR