012
AXNT20 KNHC 200532
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Jul 20 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0510 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 26W, from 20N southward,
moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is within 360 nm on either side of the
tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W/72W from 21N
southward, moving westward 20 knots to 25 knots. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 14N to 25N
within 450 nm to the east of the tropical wave; and in the
Windward Passage.

A tropical wave is along 89W, from 20N southward, moving westward
20 knots. The tropical wave extends from the Yucatan Peninsula
southward, through Central America. Precipitation: scattered
strong is in Honduras and Guatemala, and it is in the coastal
waters on the Pacific Ocean side from Nicaragua to Guatemala.
Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is in the coastal
plains and in the coastal waters of Nicaragua. The precipitation
is comparatively weaker in intensity, and less in coverage,
between 80W and the 70W/72W tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of northern
Senegal near 16N17W, to 10N30W 09N40W 07N48W, and 07N55W.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
isolated moderate to locally strong, is to the south of the
monsoon trough.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge passes through Florida along 28N, toward the Deep
South of Texas/NE Mexico. An upper level cyclonic circulation
center is in the south central Gulf. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong spans much of the Gulf.

Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong convective
precipitation surrounds Florida, under the upper level
anticyclonic wind flow.

Slight seas, and moderate or slower winds, are in the Gulf.

Atlantic high pressure will extend westward across central
Florida and to the central Gulf through Sun, then slowly lift
northward to near 30N Mon through midweek. It will support gentle
to locally moderate winds and slight seas. Pulsing moderate to
fresh winds are expected near and to the NW of the Yucatan
Peninsula during the evening and night hours due to local effects.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 70W
westward. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of
the area.

Moderate seas are between Puerto Rico and 81W. Slight seas are in
the remainder of the area. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds cover
the entire Caribbean Sea.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N from 75W in Colombia, beyond
Costa Rica, and into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated
moderate is within 180 nm to the south of the monsoon trough.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended
at 20/0000 UTC, are: 0.09 in Guadeloupe. This information is from
the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

The pressure gradient between the Atlantic high pressure and the
Colombian low is supporting fresh to locally strong trade winds
over the central Caribbean, with mainly moderate seas. Winds and
seas will diminish slightly through early Sat as a tropical wave
moves through the basin. The trade winds and associated seas will
increase again Sat through Mon, diminishing some Tue and
increasing again Tue night in the wake of an easterly surge.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The upper level pattern consists of ridge/trough couplets from
Florida to 40W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence covers the
Atlantic Ocean from 10N northward between 30W and 50W, and from
13N to 20N between 51W and 60W. A surface trough has broken to
overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers within 90 nm
on either side of 30N33W 24N40W 20N48W. Large-scale surface
anticyclonic wind flow spans the rest of the Atlantic Ocean.
A 1029 mb high pressure center is near 33N54W.

Fresh to strong northerly winds are from 26N northward from 19W
eastward. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are elsewhere from
20W eastward from the monsoon trough northward. Fresh anticyclonic
wind flow is from 28N southward between 45W and 71W. Moderate to
fresh NE winds are from 14N northward between 35W and 45W.
Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic
Ocean. Moderate seas are in the Atlantic Ocean.

A ridge will extend westward from the N central Atlantic to
across central Florida. The ridge will slowly lift N to near 30N
Mon through midweek. The related gradient will support moderate to
fresh easterly winds south of 26N, with winds pulsing to strong
during the late afternoons and evenings off the northern coast of
Hispaniola into next week. The northern portion of a tropical wave
will move through the waters south of 24N through Mon accompanied
by scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some of which
may produce strong gusty winds and rough seas.

$$
mt/gr