Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
649 AXNT20 KNHC 142100 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Jul 15 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVE... The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 28W from 22N southward, and moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 25W and 31W. The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 46W from 21N southward, and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen from 07N to 12N between 40W and 52W. The axis of a central Caribbean tropical wave is near 72W from 21N southward, and moving westward at around 10 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave. The axis of a western Caribbean tropical wave is near 85W from 19N southward. This wave is moving W at 5 to 10 kt and is inducing scattered moderate convection across portions of Central America. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic off the coast of Western Sahara near 22N17W extending SW to near 13N32W then to 11N50W. The ITCZ continues westward from 11N50W to 11N59W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 15N and 25N, and from 07N to 10N between 56W and 61W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough over the SW Gulf is helping produce numerous showers and thunderstorms across the Bay of Campeche. A second trough from the western Florida Peninsula to near 25N88W is forcing scattered moderate convection. Otherwise, a 1021 mb high centered 28N93W dominates much of the Gulf. A weak pressure gradient over the Gulf is resulting in light to gentle winds, reaching moderate speeds over the far SE Gulf. With light to gentle winds across the Gulf waters, seas are in the 1-3 ft range. For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf of Mexico through the week supporting mainly moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong trade winds are over the south central Caribbean, with moderate to fresh winds over the north central Caribbean. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas are in the 6-9 ft range in the south central Caribbean, 6-7 ft in the north central Caribbean, 4-6 ft in the eastern Caribbean, and 2-4 ft over the western Caribbean. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and lower pressure in South America will continue to sustain fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean through the forecast period. The trade winds will begin to expand in coverage starting late Wed as the high pressure strengthens some. Fresh winds will pulse at night in the Windward Passage tonight and Mon night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from the northern Bahamas to Central Cuba. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is in the vicinity of the trough. Elsewhere, high pressure dominates the waters N of 20N. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the discussion waters, with seas in the 4-6 ft range. For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda high pressure ridge will extend southwestward to central Florida over the next few days. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds will exist south of the ridge, and light to gentle south to southwest winds will be north of the ridge. Winds are forecast to increase to fresh speeds over the southeastern waters starting late on Wed as the high pressure strengthens some, and a tropical wave moves through tropical Atlantic waters. A surface trough accompanied by scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms extends from the NW Bahamas to west-central Cuba. This feature will continue westward through Mon. To its E, the northern portion of a tropical wave that is along 72W and S of 22N will continue westward reaching the Straits of Florida Tue, with scattered showers and thunderstorms accompanying it. $$ AL