316
AXNT20 KNHC 211023
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Jul 21 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 32W/33W from 20N
southward, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered showers are
noted where the wave axis meets the monsoon trough.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 78W/79W and extends from
eastern Cuba and western Jamaica southward into eastern Panama.
It is moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are occurring over parts of Jamaica, eastern Cuba
and the Cayman Islands.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through near the
Mauritania/ Senegal border, then extends southwestward to 12N30W
to 09N50W. The ITCZ continues westward from 09N50W to 09N60W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 30W
and 40W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The Atlantic ridge extends westward across Florida into the Gulf
of Mexico. This system is supporting gentle to moderate easterly
winds S of 24N, including the Straits of Florida, with seas of 2
to 4 ft, occasionally 5 to 6 ft in the Straits of Florida.
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail.
Scattered to numerous shower, with embedded thunderstorms, are
noted over the western Bay of Campeche, including the Veracruz
area. Similar convective activity is affecting the Yucatan
Channel.

For the forecast, a ridge will remain in place across the Gulf
waters over the next several days. It will support gentle to
moderate E to SE winds and slight seas. Pulsing moderate to fresh
winds are expected near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula
during the evening and night hours due to local effects. Scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected over the
Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf tonight and Mon as the northern
portion of a tropical wave moves across the area.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Atlantic high pressure is building over the eastern Caribbean
in the wake of a tropical wave currently located along 78W/79W. As
a result, the most recent scatterometer data provide observations
of fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean, including the
Gulf of Venezuela where winds are 25 to 30 kt. Moderate to fresh
winds are seen over the eastern Caribbean, and in the Gulf of
Honduras while gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere, except
in the SW portion of the basin, particularly S of 12N where light
to gentle winds are noted. Combined seas are 6 to 9 ft in the
central Caribbean, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere, with the exception of
2 to 4 ft in the SW Caribbean S of 11N.

For the forecast, the aforementioned tropical wave will move through
the western Caribbean tonight and Mon. High pressure from the
central Atlantic will build in its wake, with increasing fresh to
strong winds and building seas, possibly peaking to 11 or 12 ft
over the south-central Caribbean early on Mon. The trade winds
and associated seas will diminish slightly on Tue, then increase
across the eastern and central Caribbean for the remainder of the
forecast period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level trough extends southwestward from a low located SW
of Bermuda near 30N66W to another upper-level low spinning over
the central Bahamas and central Cuba. The latter low combined with
the northern portion of a tropical wave is enhancing scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Bahamas and
eastern Cuba. At the surface, the pattern is dominated by the
Bermuda-Azores high, with a 1026 mb center situated E of Bermuda
near 32N59W. The gradient between the high pressure and the
tropical wave is supporting an area of fresh to strong SE winds
between the central Bahamas and eastern Cuba, mainly S of 23N
between 74W and 77W based on recent scatterometer data. Elsewhere,
moderate to locally fresh trades are noted N of 10N to about 24N.
Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow dominates the remainder of
the Atlantic forecast waters with the exception of fresh to strong
northerly winds between the Canary Islands and off NW Africa.
Seas are generally 4 to 7 ft, except 7 to 9 ft downstream of the
Canary Islands based on altimeter data.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores high will continue
to dominate the Atlantic forecast waters over the next several
days. The related pressure gradient will support moderate to fresh
easterly winds south of 25N, with winds pulsing to strong during
the late afternoons and evenings off the northern coast of
Hispaniola through at least mid-week. The northern portion of a
tropical wave combined with an upper-level low spinning over the
central Bahamas and central Cuba is producing scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Bahamas,
eastern Cuba, and Jamaica. This convective activity will continue
to shift westward across the Bahamas, Cuba, and regional waters
today, reaching the Straits of Florida tonight. Some of the
thunderstorms may produce strong gusty winds and rough seas.

$$
GR