251
AXNT20 KNHC 171024
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Jul 17 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A central Atlantic tropical wave axis is along 44W from 20N
southward, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 04N to 08N between 40W and 45W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave axis is along 68W from Puerto
Rico to Venezuela, moving W at around 15 kt. Convection previously
associated with this wave has dissipated early this morning.

An eastern Pacific tropical wave axis extends N into the Bay of
Campeche and is moving W at 15 kt. Convection associated with this
wave has now moved inland into Mexico.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal
near 14N17W to 11N30W and 08N39W. The ITCZ is along 08N/09N
between 47W and 59W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of
the monsoon trough to 06N, E of 35W and from 04N to 14N between
47W and 60W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure centered well NE of the area continues to dominate
Gulf weather this morning, bringing light to gentle mainly SE
winds and light seas. No convection is occurring in the basin at
this time.

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will extend a weak ridge
westward into the northern Gulf of Mexico through the weekend,
supporting moderate or weaker winds and mainly slight seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak surface trough extends southward from the Bahamas to
eastern Cuba. This is inducing scattered moderate convection
between Jamaica, Cuba, and Hispaniola, including in the Windward
Passage. Scattered moderate convection generally S of 13N,
offshore Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama is associated with the
eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough. Otherwise, a
tradewind regime dominates. Fresh to strong mainly E winds and
seas of 5 to 7 ft are ongoing in the central basin, with moderate
to fresh E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in the SW and eastern
Caribbean. Gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are present in the
NW basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between an Atlantic high
pressure ridge extending along 30N-31N and lower pressure across
South America will continue to sustain fresh to strong trade winds
over the central Caribbean before diminishing slightly Thu into
Sat. Trades will increase again this weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak surface trough extends from 27N75W through the Bahamas and
into eastern Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is present east
of this trough axis, to about 60W, being enhanced by the
associated mid and upper level trough oriented east of the low-
level feature. The remaining convection in the tropical Atlantic
is associated with the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough and a tropical wave,
all described in the sections above. The combination of stable
conditions stemming from an expansive high pressure centered E of
Bermuda and a broad area of dusty Saharan airmass for waters E of
50W is prevent any addition convection this morning.

Closer to the ridge axis along 30N/31N, extending S to about 25N,
winds are mainly light to gentle and seas are 3 to 5 ft. Then,
from 25N south to the monsoon trough and ITCZ, moderate to fresh
trades dominate, along with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Light winds are in
the vicinity of the aforementioned features, but farther south,
generally gentle southerly winds prevail. Seas south of the higher
trades are 4 to 6 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, the Bermuda high pressure ridge will
extend W-SW to Central Florida through Fri night. Winds will
increase to fresh over the southeastern waters during this time as
the high pressure strengthens some and a tropical wave moves
through regional waters. Look for winds to pulse to fresh to
strong each evening offshore of the N coast of Hispaniola through
Sat.

$$
Konarik