971
AXNT20 KNHC 181020
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Jul 18 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 53W from 20N southward,
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
within about 300 nm on either side of the wave axis, S of 10N.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W, from the Windward
Passage to Colombia, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Numerous moderate
to isolated strong convection is noted near the coast along the
Colombia-Venezuela. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the
eastern Caribbean behind the wave for about 240 nm.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Mauritania
at 17N16W to 12N34W to 10N49W to 11N55W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 180 nm S of the monsoon trough.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from an Atlantic high pressure center E
of Bermuda across the central Gulf of Mexico. This is preventing
any significant convection and leading to mainly gentle SE winds
with seas of 2 ft or less. Some moderate SW winds and seas to 3 ft
are in the eastern Bay of Campeche early this morning.

For the forecast,

High pressure will extend from the western Atlantic into the
northern Gulf of Mexico through early next week, supporting mainly
gentle winds and slight seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

See Tropical Waves section above for details on convection in the
central and eastern basin. The eastern extension of the East
Pacific monsoon trough along 09W continues to the Colombia coast.
Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is ongoing along
and south of this trough to 75W. Fresh to strong NE to E winds
are S of 18N between 70W and 76W. Moderate to locally high seas
are present in this same area. Eastern parts of the basin have
moderate to fresh trades with moderate seas. For the remainder of
the basin, winds are mainly gentle with light seas.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between an Atlantic high
pressure ridge extending along roughly 30N and lower pressure
across South America is supporting fresh to locally strong trade
winds over the central Caribbean, along with mainly moderate
seas. Winds and seas will diminish slightly through Sat as a pair
of tropical waves move through the basin. The tradewinds and
associated seas will increase again Sat night into Mon as high
pressure builds again in the wake of the tropical waves.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough along 65W is leading to scattered moderate
convection between 60W and the Bahamas. The remainder of
convection in the basin is associated with a tropical wave and the
monsoon trough and is described in the sections above.

A broad swatch of fresh trades extends across the entire basin
from 15N to 25N, with moderate seas prevail. Elsewhere, winds and
seas are moderate or less. The basin is dominated by a broad
surface ridge with an axis around 30N.

For the forecast W of 55W, the Bermuda high pressure ridge will
extend east to west along roughly 30N through Mon night. This
pattern will support moderate to fresh easterly winds south of
25N, with strong winds occasionally pulsing off the northern coast
of Hispaniola.

$$
Konarik