272
AXNT20 KNHC 082351
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Jul 9 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 06N-19N
with axis near 36W, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 04N-08N
between 32W-39W.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean extending to the south of 18N
with axis near 64W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant
deep convection is occurring in association with this wave.

A tropical wave is moving across N Central America and into the E
Pacific waters. Its axis is near 90W and is moving westward at 10
kt. Scattered heavy showers are occurring over SE Mexico including
the Yucatan, Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Senegal
near 16N17W and continues to 06N42W. The ITCZ continues from there
to 06N57W 12N30W to 08N41W where the ITCZ then continues to
07N58W along the coast of Guyana. Aside from the convection
associated with the tropical wave in the central Atlantic,
widely scattered moderate convection is from 08N-13N east of 22W
and from 05N-07N between 45W-52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical Depression Beryl is inland over NE Texas at 8 PM EDT,
and is moving north-northeast at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds
over land are 30 kt with 40 kt gusts, and the minimum central
pressure is 997 mb. Within 60 NM of the coast of the upper Texas
and SE Louisiana coasts, strongest winds have dropped to S to SW
near gale conditions with peak seas around 11 ft. Gentle to
moderate S to SE winds are elsewhere across the basin along with
3-7 ft seas.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Beryl is moving further inland,
with marine conditions over the NW Gulf improving tonight into
Tuesday. High pressure building in the wake of Beryl will prevail
through the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the TROPICAL WAVES section above for details on the
tropical waves in the area.

The Bermuda-Azores High centered northeast of the area continues
to support a tight pressure gradient that is leading to a large
area of fresh to strong trades across the central and NW
Caribbean this evening. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds
prevail. Seas are 7-10 ft in the central Caribbean and 3-6 ft
elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a strong ridge
north of the Caribbean and lower pressure over Colombia will
support fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across much of
the central Caribbean through late this week. Winds may pulse to
near gale at night off NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly
winds will prevail in the NW Caribbean through midweek, pulsing to
strong speeds across the Gulf of Honduras tonight and Tue night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the TROPICAL WAVES section for the latest details on
the tropical wave in the central Atlantic Ocean.

Gentle to moderate E to SE winds across the central and W
subtropical Atlantic waters along with 4-6 ft seas are under the
influence of the Bermuda-Azores High associated ridge. Northeast
winds of the same magnitude are also ongoing across the E
subtropical Atlantic waters along with moderate seas, except for
fresh to locally strong NE winds east of the Canary Islands.
Otherwise, a surface trough - being forced by a strong upper-level
low - between Bermuda and the Bahamas continues to support a
broad area of scattered showers and thunderstorms from 25N-30N
between 72W-77W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the interaction between an upper-
level low located between the SE US and Bermuda and a surface
trough will support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
between the Bahamas and Bermuda tonight. Otherwise, high pressure
will prevail across the area with mainly gentle to moderate winds.
Locally fresh to strong winds will pulse off the northern coast
of Hispaniola tonight and then late this week.

$$
Landsea