898
AXNT20 KNHC 161036
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Jul 16 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 38W from 22N southward,
and moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is present from 07N to 10N between 35W and 38W.

A western Atlantic tropical wave is near 59W, from 20N to just W
of Barbados to Guyana, moving W at around 20 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted over waters near Suriname and Guyana.

A western Caribbean tropical wave along 88W is nearly fully into
Central America and the eastern Pacific Ocean, but its axis is
still over portions of the Gulf of Honduras, and moving W at
around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the Gulf
of Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of
Western Sahara/Mauritania, then meanders southwestward across
11N30W to 12N50W. An ITCZ has developed from 12N50W to 10N55W.
Scattered moderate convection is seen south of the trough from 09N
to 12N between Guiana coast and 25W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered moderate convection across the Caribbean waters near
Panama and northwestern Colombia.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Scattered convection along the west coast of Florida in
association with a weak surface trough has dissipated early this
morning. The Gulf is dominated by 1018 mb high pressure centered
offshore Mobile Bay, inducing mainly light to gentle winds and
seas of 1 to 2 ft. Some gentle to moderate E winds and seas of 2
to 4 ft are ongoing in and near the Florida Straits.

For the forecast, weak high pressure focused over the northern
Gulf will support moderate or weaker winds and mainly slight
seas. Scattered thunderstorms will move westward just offshore
Cuba today, behind the northern portion of a tropical wave that is
currently moving into Central America.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Atlantic Ridge axis along 28N is sustaining a trade-wind
regime across the basin. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ sections for information on convection in the
Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong NE to ENE winds and seas of 6 to 8
ft are noted at the south- central basin. Moderate to fresh ENE to
ESE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are evident at the southwestern and
north- central basin, including the Windward Passage. Gentle to
moderate easterly winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail elsewhere in
the Caribbean Basin, including the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between an Atlantic high
pressure ridge N of the area and lower pressure across South
America will continue to sustain fresh to strong trade winds over
the central Caribbean before diminishing slightly. Scattered
thunderstorms will move westward across the NW basin today, behind
the northern portion of a tropical wave that is moving into
Central America. Winds will pulse to fresh this morning in the
Windward Passage.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Convection in association with a deep-layer rough from around
29N54W and 20N67W has diminished early this morning. Refer to the
Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional
convection in the Atlantic Basin. A large 1025 mb Bermuda-Azores
High centered near 31N49W extends a ridge axis along 29N. This is
supporting light to gentle winds N of 26N across the basin, with
seas of 4 to 6 ft. To the south of this zone, extending to the
ITCZ and monsoon trough, moderate to locally fresh trades
dominate, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Farther east, locally strong NE
winds are ongoing off the coast of Western Sahara, where seas are
7 to 9 ft. For waters S of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, light to
gentle winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda high pressure ridge will extend
southwestward to Central Florida into the weekend. Winds are
forecast to increase to fresh over the southeastern waters
starting late on Wed as the high pressure strengthens some and a
tropical wave moves through tropical Atlantic waters.

$$

Konarik