508
AXNT20 KNHC 111812
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Jul 11 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Meteo-France issued a Gale Warning for their Canarias marine
zone, expect frequent gusts to gale-force mainly between the
Canary Islands from 11/12Z to 12/12Z. Please visit website -
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is over the eastern Cabo Verde
Islands near 23W from 20N southward, and moving westward at 10 to
15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 08N to 11N
between 18W and 23W.

Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 33W from 15N
southward, and moving westward around 10 kt. Under the influence
of Saharan Dust, no significant convection is observed.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 48W from 22N southward,
and moving westward around 10 kt. Widely scattered showers are
found from 10N to 15N between 47W and 51W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 64W from near the
Virgin Islands southward into northern Venezuela, and moving
westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are occurring near Trinidad and Tobago, and over
northeastern Venezuela.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 86W from the Yucatan
Channel southward Honduras and Nicaragua into the East Pacific
Ocean. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Widely scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring over Belize.
Interaction with the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
numerous heavy showers and scattered strong thunderstorms at the
southwestern Caribbean Sea.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of
Mauritania near Nouakchott, then curves southwestward across
10N24W to 06N35W. An ITCZ continues westward from 06N35W across
05N45W to 09N57W. Scattered moderate convection is evident south
of 11N and between 49W and 57W. Scattered moderate convection is
found south of the trough from 06N to 10N between the Sierra
Leone coast. Similar conditions are also found near the trough and
ITCZ, from 03N to 09N between 34W and 41W, and from 06N to 11N
between 50W and 58W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring south
of a frontal boundary across the Gulf States, near the Texas and
Louisiana coast, including waters near New Orleans. Convergent
southeasterly winds are producing similar conditions near the
Mexican coast. A surface trough runs eastward from the
northeastern Gulf to beyond northern Florida. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are noted along the Florida west coast.
Otherwise, a 1019 mb high at the north-central Gulf is promoting
light to gentle winds at the northeastern Gulf, and gentle to
moderate E to SE winds for the rest of the Gulf. Seas for the
entire Gulf range from 2 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will dominate the Gulf of
Mexico through the forecast period, supporting moderate or weaker
winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds will freshen up at night
off the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula through Sun night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An expansive subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends
southwestward into the Great Bahama Bank, sustaining a trade-wind
regime across much of the Caribbean Basin. Convergent trades are
producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near Puerto
Rico and the Dominican Republic. Refer to the Tropical Waves
section for additional convection in the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to
strong ENE to E winds with seas at 7 to 9 ft are seen at the
south-central basin. Gentle to moderate E to ESE winds and 3 to 6
ft seas are evident at the northwestern basin. Light to gentle
monsoonal winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft in ENE swell are found near
Costa Rica and Panama. Moderate to fresh ENE to ESE winds and seas
at 4 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Basin.

For the forecast, the aforementioned subtropical ridge will
support fresh to strong trade winds across much of the central and
southwestern Caribbean Sea through early next week. Winds may
pulse to near-gale force at night off northwestern Colombia. Seas
will peak near 10 ft during the strongest winds. Gentle to
moderate NE to E winds are forecast for the northwestern
Caribbean, increasing to fresh at night in the Gulf of Honduras,
lee of Cuba and Windward Passage tonight through Sat night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends westward from a 1012 mb low near 30N76W
to beyond northern Florida. Interaction with an Upper-level low
near 31N71W is enhancing scattered showers and thunderstorms north
of 23N and west of 64W, including the northwest and central
Bahamas. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

The subtropical ridge is supporting moderate to locally fresh E
to SSE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft north of 20N between 20W and
the Florida/Georgia coast. Near the Cabo Verde Islands from 10N to
20N and east of 30W, gentle to moderate NE to ENE winds with 4 to
6 ft seas in moderate northerly swell exist. For the Tropical
Atlantic from 08N to 20N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles,
gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to E winds and seas at 6
to 8 ft are evident. Gentle to moderate southerly and monsoonal
winds with 4 to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail the
remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough off northeastern
Florida will sustain scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
over the waters mainly north of the Bahamas during the next few
days. The trough is expected to lift northwestward and move inland
the southeastern U.S. by this weekend. SE winds will increase to
fresh to strong east of the trough from this afternoon through
early Fri evening. Seas will build to near 10 ft early Fri.
Elsewhere, moderate to fresh easterly winds will continue across
the southeastern waters during the next several days. Seas will
build to 9 ft early Fri. Locally strong winds and rough seas are
likely for Puerto Rico and Hispaniola adjacent waters Fri night
into Sat night.

$$

Chan