165
AXNT20 KNHC 131114 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Jul 13 2024

Corrected Tropical Waves section

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...Corrected

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 37W from 20N southward,
and moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is seen from 08N to 11N between 32W and 40W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 65W from N of Puerto
Rico to NW Venezuela, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 14N to 23N between the Leeward Islands
and 68W, including the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 80W from the Cayman
Islands S across western Panama and into the East Pacific Ocean,
moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
found over coastal waters along the Nicaragua and Costa Rica
coasts.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of
Western Sahara and Mauritania, then curves southwestward across
13N23W to 09N37W. An ITCZ continues westward from 09N37W across
08N45W to 09N57W. Scattered moderate convection is seen south of
the trough from 08N to 11N between the Guinea/Sierra Leone coast
and 21W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
within 90 nm of either side of the ITCZ W of 41W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Thunderstorms associated with a surface trough in the south-
central Bay of Campeche have moved inland into Mexico. Elsewhere,
ridging in association with a 1021 mb high pressure centered
offshore Mobile Bay is dominating the Gulf this morning. Moderate
with locally fresh NE to E winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are
evident at the central and eastern Bay of Campeche. Light to
gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas exist at the northeastern and
central Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas at 2 to 3
ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf of Mexico
through the forecast period, supporting mainly moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. Fresh winds are expected
tonight and possibly again Sun night off the NW Yucatan Peninsula.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A trade-wind dominated pattern continues for the entire Caribbean
Basin. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for additional
convection in the Caribbean Basin. Fresh to strong ENE winds and
seas of 7 to 10 ft are dominating the south- central and portions
of the the SW basin. Gentle to moderate ENE to E winds and 3 to 6
ft seas are noted at the northwestern and southwestern basin.
Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft prevail
elsewhere of the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure centered north of the area will
support fresh to strong trade winds across portions of the SW
Caribbean into early next week and much of the central Caribbean
through the forecast period. Seas will peak near 10 ft tonight.
Fresh winds will pulse tonight in the Gulf of Honduras and in the
Windward Passage.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A mid-level trough with an axis along 78W extends S through the
Bahamas and is inducing scattered moderate convection. Refer to
the Tropical Waves and ITCZ/Monsoon Trough sections for additional
convection in the Atlantic. Moderate to fresh mainly E winds
dominate waters 15N to 25N between 40W and 75W. Near the Canary
Islands, gales have ended, but strong N to NE winds are ongoing N
of 22N and E of 30W. For the Cabo Verde Islands, gentle
northerly winds and seas at 7 to 9 ft in large NE winds are seen
north of 20N between the Africa coast and 30W. For the Tropical
Atlantic south from 09N to 15N between 30W and the Lesser
Antilles, moderate NE to E winds and seas at 6 to 9 ft exist.
Gentle winds along with 4 to 7 ft seas prevail for the remainder
of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to locally strong winds will
pulse tonight offshore Hispaniola, and E swell will bring 8 to 10
ft seas through tonight N of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola and to the
east of the Turks and Caicos Islands.

$$
Konarik