301
AXNT20 KNHC 132115
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Jul 14 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES

The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 40W from 20N
southward, and moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is seen from 07N to 11N between 36W and 45W.

The axis of an eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 67W from
22N southward, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 17N to 23N between 63W
and 72W.

The axis of a western Caribbean tropical wave is near 82W from
20N southward into the East Pacific Ocean, moving westward around
10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found over the coastal
waters of Panama and Costa Rica.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border
of Western Sahara and Mauritania, then curves southwestward to
15N23W to 10N45W. The ITCZ continues westward from 10N45W to
08N58W. Aside from convection mentioned above in the tropical
waves section, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
is noted from 08N to 12N between 16W and 20W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails across the Gulf of Mexico, anchored by a
1023 mb high centered near 28N90W. Gentle to moderate winds are
found over the SE Gulf, with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas
are in the 1-3 ft range.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf of Mexico
through the forecast period supporting mainly moderate or weaker
winds and slight to moderate seas. Fresh winds are expected
tonight and possibly again Sun night off the NW Yucatan Peninsula.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds are noted over the south central Caribbean
with moderate to fresh winds over the north central Caribbean.
Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 7-9 ft
range in the south central Caribbean, and 6-7 ft in the north
central Caribbean. Elsewhere, seas of 4-6 ft are over the eastern
Caribbean, and 3-5 ft over the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will prevail over
most of the southwestern Caribbean through early Sun, and over
the central Caribbean through the entire forecast period while
expanding in coverage. Fresh winds will pulse tonight in the Gulf
of Honduras and in the Windward Passage. Fresh winds will pulse
again at night in the Windward Passage Sun through Tue. A tropical
wave in the eastern Caribbean is accompanied by scattered showers
and thunderstorms with gusty winds. The wave is forecast to reach
the western Caribbean Mon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 29N77W to central Cuba. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is in the vicinity of the
trough. High pressure generally prevails elsewhere over the waters
N of 20N. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 8-9 ft, are noted
N of Hispaniola. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-7 ft,
prevail elsewhere over the discussion waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong winds will pulse
tonight offshore Hispaniola. E swell producing seas to 9 ft east
of the southeastern Bahamas to near 65W will slowly subside
through early Sun. The Bermuda high will build southwestward
toward central florida over the next several days. An area of
numerous showers and thunderstorms is S of 24N between 65W and
75W. This activity is moving northwestward ahead of the northern
portion of an eastern Caribbean tropical wave. Gusty winds can be
expected with this activity.

$$
AL