364
AXNT20 KNHC 141010
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Jul 14 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES

A nearly emerged tropical wave extends through the Cabo Verde
Islands from 23N southward, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted with this wave from 07N to 10N
between 20W and 30W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 42W from 21N southward,
and moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is seen from 08N to 11N between 41W and 48W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 71W from Hispaniola to
Colombia, and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring over waters near Dominican Republic.

A western Caribbean tropical wave along 85W is approaching the
Gulf of Honduras but otherwise has moved inland into Central
America and now extends south into the far eastern Pacific Ocean.
This wave is moving W at around 10 kt and is inducing scattered
moderate convection near the coasts of Costa Rica and Panama.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast
near the Banc d`Arguin National Park then extends southwestward
through 14N30W to 09N45W. An ITCZ continues westward from 09N46W
to 09N56W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
occurring up to 60 nm along either side of the ITCZ between 46W
and 52W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered strong thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near
northwestern Colombia.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is producing scattered thunderstorms across the
Bay of Campeche. A weaker trough over the western Florida
Peninsula is leading to scattered moderate convection offshore
Florida extending S into the Florida Straits. Otherwise, a 1021 mb
high centered in the NE Gulf dominates much of the Gulf. Moderate
with locally fresh ENE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are present at
the Bay of Campeche and southeastern Gulf. Light to gentle winds
with 1 to 2 ft seas are seen at the north- central and
northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate ESE winds with seas at 2 to
4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf of Mexico
through the week supporting mainly moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure centered N of the basin is sustaining a tradewind
dominated weather pattern over the Caribbean. Convection in the
basin is associated with tropical waves and a monsoon trough,
described in the sections above.

Fresh to strong easterly winds and seas at 7 to 9 ft are found at
the southern basin. Gentle to moderate NE to ENE winds and seas
at 2 to 4 ft exist at the northwestern basin. Moderate to fresh
ENE to E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for rest of the
Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic ridging
and lower pressure in South America will continue to allow for
fresh to strong trade winds over portions of the southwestern
Caribbean today, and over the central Caribbean through the
forecast period, while expanding in coverage. Fresh winds will
pulse at night in the Windward Passage through Tue. A tropical
wave in the eastern Caribbean is accompanied by scattered
thunderstorms. The wave is forecast to reach the western Caribbean
Mon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level low pressure centered near 21N56W is leading to
scattered moderate convection just NE of the northern Leeward
Islands. Convection near Hispaniola is associated with a Caribbean
Tropical Wave, described in the section above. The remainder of
convection in the basin is also associated with tropical waves or
the ITCZ, and is described in the relevant sections above.

An expansive 1028 mb Bermuda High is supporting gentle E to SE winds
and seas of 4 to 6 ft seas north of 20N between 25W and the
Florida/Georgia coast, with fresh ESE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas
near the central and southeast Bahamas. Near the Canary Islands,
moderate with locally fresh NNE winds and and seas at 4 to 6 ft
exist north of 20N between the northwest Africa coast and 30W. For
the Cabo Verde Islands, Light to gentle winds and seas at 2 to 4
ft prevail north of 10N between the central Africa coast and 30W.
In the tropical Atlantic from 10N to 20N between 30W and the
Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate NE to ENE winds and 5 to 7 ft
seas are evident. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and light to
gentle monsoonal winds with 4 to 6 ft seas prevail for the
remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh E winds are pulsing offshore
Hispaniola and will continue to pulse night into Mon night. Seas
of 8 to 9 ft due to decaying easterly swell offshore the Tucks and
Caicos will fall below 8 ft by today. Thunderstorms over waters
near Hispaniola are associated with a tropical wave that will
start to impact waters near eastern Cuba later today into Mon.
Otherwise, the Bermuda High will gradually build SW toward Florida
early this week, becoming more dominant on marine weather.

$$
Konarik