538
AXNT20 KNHC 152350
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Jul 16 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 35W from
08N to 20N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is near southern part of the wave from 06N to 10N
between 30W and 35W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is approaching the Lesser
Antilles, with its axis along 57W/58W south of 20N. It is
moving westward at around 15 kt. Isolated showers are near
the southern part of the wave from 06N to 10N between 56W and
58W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave moved inland Central America
this afternoon, with its axis near 84W and its northern portion
reaching to near 18N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt.
Increasing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
over most of Honduras, eastern Nicaragua and northern Costa
Rica. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are east of
the wave from 16N to 19N between 84W and 86W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border
of western Sahara/Mauritania, then continues southwestward to
10N23W to 10N35W to 12N42W and to 11N52W. There is no ITCZ
present based on the latest analysis. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm south of the
trough 20W and 23W. Scattered moderate convection is within
30 nm of the trough between 18W and 20W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient over the basin is supported by weak
high pressure centers of 1019 mb in the NE Gulf near 28N87W and
in the NW Gulf near 28N94W. The weak gradient supports light to
gentle variable winds and slight seas. A surface trough just
inland the western Florida panhandle extends westward to
southeastern Louisiana. Clusters of scattered showers and
thunderstorms are near the trough. Increasing scattered showers
and thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf are within a very moist
and unstable environment, and are being aided by slight diffluence
aloft. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted over the
rest of the basin. A weak surface trough is over the SW Gulf near
95W from 19N to 23N. Isolated weak showers are near this trough.

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will extend a weak
ridge westward into the northern Gulf of Mexico through the week,
supporting moderate or weaker winds and mainly slight seas.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move westward through
the Straits of Florida tonight through Tue, behind the northern
portion of a tropical wave that is currently along 81W.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Atlantic high pressure ridging extends roughly along 30N/31N,
with a 1021 mb high center analyzed near 29N73W. The pressure
gradient between the ridging and lower pressure in South America
is inducing fresh to strong northeast to east winds in the
south- central part of the basin and over portions of the
southwestern Caribbean. Seas with these winds, seas are in the 7
to 10 ft range. Elsewhere across the basin, mainly moderate
trade winds prevail per latest ASCAT satellite data passes. Seas
with these winds are in the range of 4 to 7 ft. The eastern
segment of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends eastward
to northwest Colombia. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
over some sections of Panama and over southern Costa Rica.
Similar activity is also seen over most of the islands of Cuba
and Hispaniola.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between an Atlantic high
pressure ridge extending along 30N/31N and lower pressure across
South America will continue to sustain fresh to strong trade
winds over the central Caribbean through Thu before diminishing
slightly. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move westward
across the northwestern part of the basin tonight through Tue,
behind the northern portion of a tropical wave that is currently
along 84W. Winds will pulse to fresh this evening through tonight
in the Windward Passage.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The subtropical Atlantic waters are under the influence of the
Bermuda-Azores High which is supporting gentle to moderate east
to southeast winds over the central and western regions along
with moderate seas. Northeast winds of similar speed are over the
eastern subtropical waters, except for fresh to strong NE winds
between the coast of NW Africa and the Canary Islands where seas
are likely rough to 8 ft. A surface trough is analyzed from
near 30N60W to 25N63W. A small upper-level low is in the vicinity
of this trough. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
noted from 23N to 30N between 58W and 66W, and also between the
Bahamas and Cuba. Similar activity is over most of the interior
of the Florida peninsula.

For the forecast west of 55W, Atlantic high pressure ridging
will extend southwestward to central Florida through Fri. Winds
are forecast to increase to fresh speeds over the southeastern
waters starting late on Wed as the high pressure strengthens
some, and a tropical wave moves through tropical Atlantic waters.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move westward through
the Bahama Banks and Straits of Florida this evening through
Tue, in the wake of a tropical wave that has recently moved
inland Central America.

$$
Aguirre