473
AXNT20 KNHC 171659
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Jul 17 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1655 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A tropical wave in the central Atlantic has been repositioned
farther west to near 49W, south of 21N, based on recent satellite
imagery and tropical wave guidance. The wave is moving westward
at 15 kt. The wave axis is embedded in dry Saharan air limiting
the development of showers and thunderstorms.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 70W, south of 21N,
moving at 10-15 kt. A few showers are noted from 13N to 17N and
between 65W and 69W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of NW
Mauritania near 21N17W and continues southwestward to 11N30W and
to 09N52W. The ITCZ extends from 09N52W to 12N61W. Scattered
showers are observed from 07N to 13N and east of 33W. Similar
convection is present from 06N to 09N and between 42W and 46W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface trough is along the northern Gulf waters,
supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of
25N. Generally dry conditions are present elsewhere. A 1018 mb
high pressure system in the southern Mississippi Valley sustains
light to gentle anticyclonic winds and slight seas across the
basin.

For the forecast, high pressure will extend from the western
Atlantic into the northern Gulf of Mexico through the weekend,
supporting moderate or weaker winds and mainly slight seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms associated with the
eastern Pacific monsoon trough are affecting the waters north of
Panama and Costa Rica, mainly south of 10N. A strong subtropical
ridge positioned over the central Atlantic dominates the Caribbean
Sea, supporting fresh to strong easterly trade winds across the
central and SW Caribbean waters. A recent scatterometer satellite
pass showed the strongest winds occurring off northern Colombia.
Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. A buoy near 15N75W is reporting
wave heights near 8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between an Atlantic high
pressure ridge extending along roughly 30N and lower pressure
across South America will continue to sustain fresh to strong
trade winds over the central Caribbean before diminishing slightly
Thu into Sat as a pair of tropical waves move through the basin.
Trades will increase again Sun as high pressure builds again in
the wake of the tropical waves.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The interaction between a surface trough located between Bermuda
and Puerto Rico and an upper level low near 26N66W result in
scattered showers north of 23N and between 58W and 68W. Moderate
winds and seas are occurring in the area described. However, the
strongest convection may produce gusty winds and higher seas.

The rest of the basin is under the influence of a broad subtropical
ridge centered over the central Atlantic. The pressure gradient
between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics support
moderate to fresh easterly winds from 15N to 27N and between 40W
and 65W. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Farther east, moderate
to fresh southerly winds are noted south of the monsoon trough and
east of 30W. Seas in the area described are 4-7 ft. Strong to
near gale-force winds and higher seas are occurring in the areas
of the strong convection. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, the Bermuda high pressure ridge will
extend east to west along roughly 30N through Sun. This pattern
will support moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 25N through
Sun, with strong winds occasionally pulsing off the northern
coast of Hispaniola.

$$
Delgado