106
FXUS63 KARX 261036
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
536 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heavy rain and some strong to severe storms are possible again
  this afternoon with tornadoes, localized flooding, and
  damaging winds the primary threats.

- Dry weather for Friday with precipitation expected to return
  Saturday evening (20-40%) and Sunday (40-70%).

- Warmer temperatures return this weekend. Highs in the mid 80s
  to low 90s are expected with heat indices in the mid to upper
  90s on Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 415 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Heavy Rain and Strong to Severe Storms Today

Well, heavy rain and thunderstorms are on the docket again
today, adding to the soggy week we`ve endured thus far. A
surface frontal system surges northward late this morning
associated with a 500hPa trough swinging through the region.
Similarly to yesterday, CAPE values build to 2000+ J/kg by the
afternoon with bulk shear of 25- 35kts and cyclonic curvature
again noted in the low-level shear profiles. The juicy
atmosphere also remains in place today such that any storms that
develop will again be efficient rainfall producers. The 26.00z
HREF highlights 20-40% probabilities for 1 inch per hour rates
across portions of our area this afternoon with 1-3 inches of
rain possible, locally higher, from northeast Iowa into western
Wisconsin.

Two rounds of storms are possible today: the first early this
afternoon along the warm front as it lifts northward and the
second later this afternoon into the evening as the main trough
swings through. The greatest severe threat exists primarily
along and south of I-90 again today, but areas along and south
of Highway 10 could also see strong to severe storms dependent
on the northward extent of the warm front. Hazards include
tornadoes, heavy rain with localized flooding, and damaging
winds. Given a similar environment to yesterday which saw
several tornadoes that were weak and short lived, it is likely
that tornadoes today will be similar in nature. However, if an
isolated storm early this afternoon aligns along the warm front,
the threat for a stronger tornado will increase. The flooding
risk is highest across portions of southeast Minnesota into
western Wisconsin where the most rain fell yesterday and soil
saturation is the highest. Hail is unlikely again today, but
some storms may be able to produce nickel sized hail given more
stout CAPE profiles and slightly steeper mid-level lapse rates.

Trending Drier Friday; Rain This Weekend

Ensemble guidance continues to depict drier weather on Friday
as high pressure and drier air briefly work their way into the
upper Midwest with mostly cloudy skies expected in the morning,
beginning to clear in the afternoon. Various upper level
shortwaves then traverse the region Saturday and Sunday,
allowing for showers and storms to develop. Not expecting rain
to make its way into the region until Saturday evening, possibly
not until the overnight hours. Higher probabilities for
areawide rain are on Sunday. PWATs of 1.5 inches are expected,
not nearly as high as this past week, suggesting rainfall won`t
be as efficient as what we`ve seen recently with the 26.01z NBM
indicating the probability to see a 1/2 inch or more in 24 hours
is 20-30%.

Warmer Temperatures This Weekend

Despite the various upper level shortwaves expected to move
through the region this weekend increasing our rainfall
probabilities, 925- 850hPa thermal ridging builds into the upper
Mississippi River Valley from the west, allowing for warming
temperatures Saturday and Sunday. Current high temperatures are
expected to be in the mid 80s to low 90s with dewpoints in the
upper 60s to low 70s. Some uncertainty in the temperature
forecast for the weekend exists due to the expected rainfall
possibly driving temperatures lower, but if the forecast remains
on its current track, areas in northeast Iowa and southwest
Wisconsin could flirt with heat indices of around 100 on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 535 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Variable ceiling/visibility restrictions as low as LIFR in
spots this morning improve to high IFR/MVFR for this afternoon
before a line of thunderstorms moves through in the afternoon
and evening, with IFR conditions within the heavier rain and IFR
ceilings on the backside of the rain overnight. Light winds
will be variable today given the passage of a low pressure cell,
mainly from the east north of I-90 and SSW to the south during
the day and veering to the northwest areawide overnight.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 415 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Daily Rainfall Records - June 26

La Crosse - 2.77 inches in 2021
June rainfall record is 4.50 inches on June 18, 2011

Rochester - 2.00 inches in 1941
June rainfall record is 4.90 inches on June 28, 2019

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Falkinham
AVIATION...Skow
CLIMATE...Falkinham