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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI
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131 FXUS63 KARX 161105 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 605 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and a few rumbles of thunder are likely (40-70%) this afternoon. These may (20-40%) return Saturday afternoon as well. - Sunday through Thursday feature temperatures a bit below average. Depending on how the details shake out, each afternoon could presumably feature a stray shower, but no particular day stands out at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 341 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Friday and Saturday: Additional showers and thunderstorms 08z WV satellite clearly depicts an upper low churning to our north over MN/WI. As the upper low slowly moves to the east today, multiple shortwaves will rotate around this feature and pass over the CWA. With a decent amount of moisture in place through the column, these shortwaves should kick off numerous showers, especially during the afternoon when surface heating, though restrained by cloud cover, reaches a relative maximum. Progged soundings depict skinny instability profiles suggesting thunder coverage will be more limited, so have limited thunder mentions to the isolated and scattered categories. As for other hazards, main thing to watch this afternoon will be the potential for funnels and a stray non-supercell tornado as the upper low approaches our northern forecast area. While latest guidance suggests a lack of larger scale surface boundaries and their associated surface vorticity in our area, will need to closely monitor any stronger updraft that develops on an outflow boundary this afternoon, particularly in Taylor/Clark Counties. Saturday, with the upper low slowly departing to the east, additional upper disturbances may kick off more daytime convection. While the risk for funnels should be lower, thunder remains possible Saturday afternoon. Sunday through Thursday: Below normal temperatures, low potential for stray afternoon showers Guidance continues to broadly depict northwesterly flow aloft through the middle part of next week. This pattern usually leads to temperatures running a bit below normal for mid to late August and relatively uneventful weather, an outcome borne out as expected by benign LREF joint CAPE/CIN/shear probabilities, longer term GEFS- based ML outlooks, and most GEFS/ENS components remaining near average. A stray afternoon shower or storm could presumably occur if any well-timed shortwaves arrive but this appears to be a remote possibility at this time. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 600 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Messy 24 hours ahead for aviation interests. At issuance time, fog and stratus are affecting areas roughly along and east of the MS River, including LSE. Expect this to improve over the next few hours with a brief window with VFR this morning. Then, expect numerous showers to sweep west to east across the area leading to MVFR ceilings. A rumble of thunder or two may occur as well but, due to low confidence and predictability, have left TS mentions out of the TAFs. Tonight, with plenty of moisture around, expect IFR ceilings and perhaps fog. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Ferguson AVIATION...Ferguson