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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI
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494 FXUS63 KARX 192346 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 646 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slightly below normal temperatures and largely diurnal showers and storms are favored over the next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 155 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 18z WV satellite reveals an upper ridge over the western CONUS and troughing in the east with resulting northwesterly flow aloft over the CWA. This general pattern looks to remain in place through the seven day forecast, leading to temperatures just a few degrees below normal for July with highs mainly around 80 or in the lower 80s. Additionally, while enough moisture is available at 850mb to lead to potential convection each afternoon - with the exception of this afternoon as warm 800-600mb temperatures look to keep a lid on things - lack of robust moist advection and anemic shear profiles suggest the risk for heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms will be very low. Indeed, LREF joint probabilities and CSU ML outlooks continue to suggest scant risk for severe convection and modeled PWATs remain under 1.5", not notable compared to model climatology. Coverage of convection each afternoon and the potential for it to persist into the nighttime hours will depend on timing of upper impulses in the northwesterly flow aloft, with the slow moving trough seen across guidance Tuesday into Wednesday the best bet for persistent scattered convection. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 647 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Moisture in the lower levels will increase later tonight from west to east with increasing clouds and lowering ceilings by the morning hours Saturday. Low-level moisture increases across the area Saturday morning, prior to heating and mixing, which could bring an MVFR cloud deck across the KRST airfield. For this forecast, have trended toward MVFR with ceilings Saturday morning at KRST. Further east of the moisture, VFR ceilings at times are expected at KLSE. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Ferguson AVIATION...Baumgardt