701
FXUS63 KARX 200401
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1101 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slightly below normal temperatures and largely diurnal
  showers and storms are favored over the next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

18z WV satellite reveals an upper ridge over the western CONUS and
troughing in the east with resulting northwesterly flow aloft over
the CWA. This general pattern looks to remain in place through the
seven day forecast, leading to temperatures just a few degrees below
normal for July with highs mainly around 80 or in the lower 80s.
Additionally, while enough moisture is available at 850mb to lead to
potential convection each afternoon - with the exception of this
afternoon as warm 800-600mb temperatures look to keep a lid on
things - lack of robust moist advection and anemic shear profiles
suggest the risk for heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms will be
very low. Indeed, LREF joint probabilities and CSU ML outlooks
continue to suggest scant risk for severe convection and modeled
PWATs remain under 1.5", not notable compared to model climatology.
Coverage of convection each afternoon and the potential for it to
persist into the nighttime hours will depend on timing of upper
impulses in the northwesterly flow aloft, with the slow moving
trough seen across guidance Tuesday into Wednesday the best bet for
persistent scattered convection.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1101 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

MVFR to low-VFR cigs are likely across the region during the late
morning and early afternoon hours as the 20.02z RAP shows fairly
robust low-level saturation. With mid-level cooling expected,
this should aid in marginally better instability profiles during
the day tomorrow which will in turn help develop more
aggravated cumulus and showers and isolated storms as well with
diurnal heating. Consequently. decided to hold a VCSH at KRST to
address these diurnal showers and isolated storms. Coverage in
showers and storms will diminish during the evening hours. Winds
will remain around 5 kts through the TAF period from the
south/southwest.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ferguson
AVIATION...Naylor