Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI
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205 FXUS63 KARX 170403 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 1103 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Pleasant weather ahead! A cooler, less humid, and drier forecast through the rest of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 211 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 A fairly nice start to the day with observations as of 2 PM showing temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s and dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. A bit of relief after a hot, humid, and quite busy weather weekend. Satellite imagery and RAP progs show an upper level trough which is forecast to move down across the Great Lakes into Wednesday, with a wave currently moving across the region. Hi-res models still produce some light echoes across the area, with current radar starting to show some development in the north. Have maintained low chances (15-25%) for some sprinkles/showers this afternoon and early evening with weak CAPE values looking to keep thunder chances lower as well. Otherwise, any showers that do develop should diminish with the loss of daytime heating. An amplified upper level pattern will remain as a strong ridge holds across the western U.S. and a trough over the east-central U.S. through the week. At the surface Canadian high pressure looks to dominate over the region bringing cooler conditions and less humid air. Low spread between the 25th and 75th percentiles of ensemble/blended model guidance supports near to below normal temperatures with highs in the 70s to near 80 Wednesday through Friday. A slight upward trend in temperatures is indicated for the weekend into early next week, though highs are still forecast to only top out in the mid 70s to low 80s. There remains low signal among ensemble model solutions for any impactful precipitation through much of the week, so have maintained a mainly dry forecast. Some low rain chances return to the forecast for the weekend, but confidence is low with the given pattern and low predictability of any waves. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1103 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the rest of the TAF period with scattered low to mid-level clouds. As we head into the afternoon, winds will increase to around 10 kts remaining generally north to northwesterly. Cannot completely rule out some valley fog at KLSE early this morning with decoupling winds, however with winds just off the deck to around 15 kts in the 16.21z RAP this appears very unlikely (5-10% chance). && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...EMS AVIATION...Naylor