970
FXUS63 KAPX 232322
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
722 PM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers with a few stronger thunderstorms tonight as a weaker
frontal boundary moves through

- Seasonal temperatures return for the remainder of the work week.

- An active pattern will remain in place over northern MI, with
  multiple rounds of heavy rain

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Current observations depict surface high temps over northern lower
reaching into the high 80s and low 90s with surface dew points in
the high 60s to mid 70s. This is leading to heat indices reaching
into the mid 90s and up to 105. Southwest winds have been breezy
this afternoon with frequent gusts up to 15 to 25 mph. Some small CU
has started to form over the interior parts of NE lower. This
mornings 12Z sounding indicates that we will need to mix up to 12
kft to reach the LFC due to a decent layer of warmer air near the
surface. Although its not a terrible strong cap, it is a deep one -
leading to low chances for any airmass thunderstorms this afternoon.
A -PNA pattern continues over the CONUS, with a trough racing up
from the northern plains to the Hudson Bay today. A frontal passage
is currently moving through WI and the western U.P. this afternoon,
generating some convection right along the boundary. This boundary
will continue to weaken as it reaches northern lower. Slightly
cooler temperatures aloft over eastern upper, so with the boundary
providing the lift over the near surface cap - we could see a better
chances for a few stronger thunderstorms here this evening. Primary
threats for stronger storms will mainly be damaging wind gusts and
heavy rain. Small hail could also be seen. The frontal boundary will
move over northern lower late this evening into tonight, brining
showers with mostly heavy rain and frequent lightning. A couple
stronger storms could produce gusty winds and small hail, but an
axis of deep moisture will move into a less favorable environment
(warmer temps aloft and little shear).

Temperatures will cool to seasonal behind the boundary, leading to
highs in the 70s for Tuesday. North to northwest winds will become
breezy in the afternoon hours. The axis of deep moisture will slowly
make its way south over the lower penisula Tuesday. Some weak
perturbations could spark some shower activity Tuesday morning into
the mid afternoon hours (CAMs show hints of this). However little
instability remains by that time, and any showers would be elevated.
This remains closer to the central part of the lower penisula.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025

High pressure over the eastern CONUS will center over the Ohio River
valley by mid week. Surface high pressure will slide towards eastern
CAN, generating east winds over northern MI. Drier air will likely
creep in breifly, giving an attempt for clearing out skies.
However, another deep moisture surge will approach from the west for
the end of the work week. A surface low will approach the western
great lakes region Thursday, draping a warm front across central MI
and into northern MI. An axis of deep moisture (PWATs up to 2
inches) will be carried north with this as well. The deepest
moisture will likely be over MI/WI, with the cyclone and track
through the MI straights and into CAN Thursday night into Friday
morning. However, some of the latest ensembles have deepened an upper
level short wave and strengthened the surface cyclone as it moves
over MI. This could produce some heavy rain over northern MI (up to
1 - 2 inches in 24 hours) with convective storms. At this time, the
weaker solution is favored by ensembles but we will see how things
continue to trend. Rain chances linger through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 720 PM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025

ISO -TSRA remains possible through the early overnight, from
about 00Z to 04Z, but latest guidance and observations indicates
a lessening trend. Thus, adjusted TAFs with some VCTS and some
TEMPO during the best chance for TS, but some of this may need
to be amended if the activity fails to materialize. CIGs/VIS
will drop to MVFR within any TSRA activity. VRB20G30KTs within
the strongest TSRA as well. Generally a mix of VFR and MVFR CIGs
for much of tonight with a small potential for MVFR VIS due to
BR. VFR conditions expected to return on Tuesday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ016>018-
     020>036-041-042-099.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ025-
     031-095-096-098.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     LHZ345>347-349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-
     341-342-344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELD
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...JLD