151
FXUS63 KAPX 120209
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1009 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Cool tonight; much more seasonable temperatures Monday
afternoon and beyond.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1003 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Surface and upper-level flow is slowly trending more neutral as
ridging approaches the area. The drier air filtering into the
area ahead of the ridging, along with the loss of diurnal
heating, has allowed skies to largely clear over the area. Winds
have decoupled as well, with many sites now reporting calm
winds. Mostly clear skies, light winds, and a drying air mass is
a setup for good radiational cooling. This has been seen so far
in surface temperatures, and have dropped overnight lows a few
degrees given current trends. Otherwise going forecast was in
good shape with minimal change needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 209 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Pattern Synopsis / Forecast: Anomalously deep troughing / closed low
over Georgian Bay will slowly be forced eastward by an intruding
ridge, with surface reflection of oblong area of high pressure
currently stretching from Manitoba to the Ohio Valley quick on the
closed low`s heels. Temps in the 60s and 70s may be just enough for
some shallow diurnally driven showers, with a couple hundred joules
of CAPE the remainder of this afternoon into the evening amid a deep
cyclonic flow regime. Loss of instability will put an end to shower
coverage through the evening into the overnight hours. Despite high
pressure intruding, still looks like some weak diurnal instability
may try to materialize tomorrow, perhaps bringing a returning
isolated shower risk across northeast lower Michigan.

Primary Forecast Concerns

Shower Coverage: Overall isolated to scattered showers remain
possible through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening,
favoring northeast lower and portions of the eastern Yoop owing to
better moisture / forcing and proximity to the departing low. Not
expecting any thunder, and overall, precipitation will be sporadic
and transient enough that most locales wind up with 0.10" or less of
QPF from this activity. Another shower chance tomorrow, but overall,
more on the isolated side owing to subtly less moisture overhead and
more efficient mixing. This in itself will be quite the limiting
factor, and wouldn`t be an overwhelming surprise if no showers
initiate due to lack of appreciable instability. Again, this
activity probably favors NE lower, but this time due to lake breeze
convergence amid a net westerly flow.

Temps: Cool tonight, but with lingering clouds, probably not as cool
as it could be. Still expecting lows in the 40s across portions of
the interior, with most other spots holding anywhere from the low-to-
mid 50s... perhaps near 60 along the immediate lakeshores. Much
warmer tomorrow, and noticeably more sunny... highs top out in the
mid-to-upper 70s for most, perhaps bumping a degree or two above 80
near downsloping "hotspots" such as Saginaw Bay, APN, and TVC.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 209 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Pattern Forecast: By Monday evening, northern Michigan is expected
to be sandwiched between longwave troughing anchored over the
eastern seaboard and ridging building upstream across the
Intermountain West and central Plains. Heights rise locally through
at least midweek with upstream ridge axis becoming centered overhead
toward the Wednesday night/Thursday time frame. Confidence
diminishes toward late week, but latest trends support renewed
troughing arriving over the nation`s midsection supporting low
pressure development and increased rain chances by the time we head
into next weekend.

Forecast Details: More typical summertime weather is expected to
return to the Northwoods for much of the week ahead, especially when
compared to our fall-preview the last couple of days. Rising heights
and surface high pressure should support generally tranquil weather
with highs climbing back into the upper 70s to mid-80s area-wide
Tuesday through Thursday. That said, lingering low-level moisture
and afternoon lake breeze development may support a few
showers/storms Tuesday afternoon (especially northeast lower) with
lower confidence in this occurring Wednesday/Thursday afternoons.
Surface high pressure overhead through midweek should allow for
generally calm/clear nights and at least patchy fog becoming a
pretty good bet each night -- especially in the typically fog prone
spots.

By late week, the envelope of solutions widens, but with increasing
support for low pressure developing lee of the Rockies to track
across the central Plains into the vicinity of the Great Lakes/Ohio
Valley by Friday/Saturday. This brings the potential for more
implement weather that`ll be worth monitoring for those with outdoor
plans late week into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 752 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Predominantly VFR conditions expected across the northern
Michigan terminals through the 00Z TAF valid time. Low clouds
will be on the decrease overall tonight, leaving mainly
cirrus. Satellite loops suggest some wildfire smoke from Canada
may approach from the northwest during the period, but at this
point it doesn`t look significant. Winds will generally be AOB
10 kts through the period, with a lake breeze likely to form at
KAPN late Monday afternoon.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PBB
SHORT TERM...HAD
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...PBB