Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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500 FXUS63 KAPX 120250 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1050 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... -Cool tonight; much more seasonable temperatures Monday afternoon and beyond. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1003 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Surface and upper-level flow is slowly trending more neutral as ridging approaches the area. The drier air filtering into the area ahead of the ridging, along with the loss of diurnal heating, has allowed skies to largely clear over the area. Winds have decoupled as well, with many sites now reporting calm winds. Mostly clear skies, light winds, and a drying air mass is a setup for good radiational cooling. This has been seen so far in surface temperatures, and have dropped overnight lows a few degrees given current trends. Otherwise going forecast was in good shape with minimal change needed. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 209 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Pattern Synopsis / Forecast: Anomalously deep troughing / closed low over Georgian Bay will slowly be forced eastward by an intruding ridge, with surface reflection of oblong area of high pressure currently stretching from Manitoba to the Ohio Valley quick on the closed low`s heels. Temps in the 60s and 70s may be just enough for some shallow diurnally driven showers, with a couple hundred joules of CAPE the remainder of this afternoon into the evening amid a deep cyclonic flow regime. Loss of instability will put an end to shower coverage through the evening into the overnight hours. Despite high pressure intruding, still looks like some weak diurnal instability may try to materialize tomorrow, perhaps bringing a returning isolated shower risk across northeast lower Michigan. Primary Forecast Concerns Shower Coverage: Overall isolated to scattered showers remain possible through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening, favoring northeast lower and portions of the eastern Yoop owing to better moisture / forcing and proximity to the departing low. Not expecting any thunder, and overall, precipitation will be sporadic and transient enough that most locales wind up with 0.10" or less of QPF from this activity. Another shower chance tomorrow, but overall, more on the isolated side owing to subtly less moisture overhead and more efficient mixing. This in itself will be quite the limiting factor, and wouldn`t be an overwhelming surprise if no showers initiate due to lack of appreciable instability. Again, this activity probably favors NE lower, but this time due to lake breeze convergence amid a net westerly flow. Temps: Cool tonight, but with lingering clouds, probably not as cool as it could be. Still expecting lows in the 40s across portions of the interior, with most other spots holding anywhere from the low-to- mid 50s... perhaps near 60 along the immediate lakeshores. Much warmer tomorrow, and noticeably more sunny... highs top out in the mid-to-upper 70s for most, perhaps bumping a degree or two above 80 near downsloping "hotspots" such as Saginaw Bay, APN, and TVC. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 209 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Pattern Forecast: By Monday evening, northern Michigan is expected to be sandwiched between longwave troughing anchored over the eastern seaboard and ridging building upstream across the Intermountain West and central Plains. Heights rise locally through at least midweek with upstream ridge axis becoming centered overhead toward the Wednesday night/Thursday time frame. Confidence diminishes toward late week, but latest trends support renewed troughing arriving over the nation`s midsection supporting low pressure development and increased rain chances by the time we head into next weekend. Forecast Details: More typical summertime weather is expected to return to the Northwoods for much of the week ahead, especially when compared to our fall-preview the last couple of days. Rising heights and surface high pressure should support generally tranquil weather with highs climbing back into the upper 70s to mid-80s area-wide Tuesday through Thursday. That said, lingering low-level moisture and afternoon lake breeze development may support a few showers/storms Tuesday afternoon (especially northeast lower) with lower confidence in this occurring Wednesday/Thursday afternoons. Surface high pressure overhead through midweek should allow for generally calm/clear nights and at least patchy fog becoming a pretty good bet each night -- especially in the typically fog prone spots. By late week, the envelope of solutions widens, but with increasing support for low pressure developing lee of the Rockies to track across the central Plains into the vicinity of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley by Friday/Saturday. This brings the potential for more implement weather that`ll be worth monitoring for those with outdoor plans late week into next weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1050 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the northern Michgian terminals through the 06Z TAF valid time. Cloud cover will be minimal with winds generally AOB 10kts. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...PBB SHORT TERM...HAD LONG TERM...MJG AVIATION...PBB