315
FXUS63 KAPX 120709
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
309 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer temperatures through this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 309 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024

...Warmer and mainly dry today...

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Last vestiges of the strong upper level trough axis continues to
exit eastward away from Michigan early this morning...as broad low
level ridging builds into the Western Great Lakes region. Skies are
clear across our entire CWA attm...with temps mainly in the 50s.

High pressure will remain centered over the Western Great Lakes
today and tonight...resulting in mainly dry wx and mainly clear
skies. Light wind regime will lend to some lake breeze development
this afternoon...especially along our Lake Huron shoreline. Some
enhanced low level convergence across portions of NE Lower Michigan
as lake breezes develop may lead to a few showers this afternoon/
early evening. Light winds tonight will also lead to some patchy fog
development later tonight.

Temps will certainly moderate today from our recent below normal
temps over the weekend. High temps this afternoon will warm into the
upper 70s to around 80 degrees. Clear skies and light/calm winds
tonight will again allow temps to cool into the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 309 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
Upper trough starting to open up and depart the Upper Great Lakes;
northerly flow on the backside of this into northern
Michigan...hitting NW-SE oriented deformation/col axis and dry slot
stretching from Alberta to SW MI. General surface high overspreading
the bulk of the central continent...though some activity along the
backside of the deformation axis over the Dakotas into the central
Plains. Most of the activity and deeper moisture over the southern
US/eastern Seaboard; moisture has wrapped around the southern stream
ridge into northern TX/OK, where a boundary resides that connects to
aforementioned eastern seaboard moisture pooling/BCZ. Much quieter
weather returning to the Great Lakes just in time for a good
northern lights show and the Perseid Meteor Shower peak.

Expecting upper trough to continue to depart...with nebulous col
region to overspread the area Tuesday. General high pressure
expected to be in place, though will have to keep an eye out for
some subtle disturbances in the flow that could help perturb a few
pop-up showers and storms over parts of the area. Ridge axis finally
tries to move in Wednesday, and will expect largely improving
conditions. Still not a hundred percent clear that we won`t
have additional subtle disturbances to contend with Wednesday as
well, though bulk of any activity should remain well to our
southwest over the Plains. General troughing currently over the
PacNW to slip eastward going into the latter half of the week, which
looks to approach for Thursday/Friday...potentially settling into
the Upper Great Lakes in the form of another upper low for the
upcoming weekend. If this idea verifies...will expect another
unsettled/wet and cool weekend for mid August.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Afternoon pop-ups Tuesday?... Setup is relatively favorable for
afternoon pop-ups. Not a sure bet, as it`s possible we may end up
too dry in the boundary layer to promote better instability with
diurnal heating...and there are also some signals that there could
be some layers aloft to keep any convective activity from getting
very deep at all, which would also preclude afternoon activity.
However...not sure that we`ll be able to scrub out as much of the
lingering boundary layer moisture as expected, plus we should, at
least weakly, be under the influence of some return flow that should
keep the moisture around...and potential for a little bit of weak
PVA as well. Plan to keep at least slight chances of pops in for
now, though not intending to go too bullish. Also think we could
hold onto some afternoon pop-up chances Wednesday afternoon,
particularly with some potential for a little bit of an upper
disturbance to slip in Wednesday as well...though also some
potential we may again be too warm aloft to allow for any kind of
deeper convective development.

Rain returns Thursday/Friday... More certainty tonight in the idea
of a trough approaching the Upper Midwest Thursday (and likely
hanging out into the end of the week). Current pattern suggests
we`ll have a developing surface low approach from the
west/southwest, which should also have a good feed of moisture off
the gulf...which indicates some potential for another round of warm
advective rain somewhere across the Upper Midwest. Not impossible
there could be some heavy rain concerns, as it looks like this
system may end up being slow to depart the region...and do think
we`ll have to keep an eye on our area, as signals are not as strong
for a sharp northern gradient to the precip as sometimes occurs.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1050 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the northern
Michgian terminals through the 06Z TAF valid time. Cloud cover
will be minimal with winds generally AOB 10kts.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MLR
LONG TERM...FEF
AVIATION...PBB