Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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264 FXUS63 KAPX 121739 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 139 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warmer temperatures through this week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 931 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Ongoing forecast remains in great shape. Expansive area of high pressure nosing into the region at the moment, and a cursory glance at water vapor imagery shows the continued departure of the upper level low eastward into the Lake Ontario vicinity. Expecting much of the day to remain on the dry side as high pressure suppresses most diurnal cumulus development and surface dewpoints hold largely in the 50s. Exception remains those closer to Lake Huron, which are observing dewpoints closer to 60. With the development of lake breeze processes, could feasibly force a shallow shower in that vicinity, so will be keeping slight chance PoPs across much of NE lower. All in all, no changes made at this juncture. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 309 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Warmer and mainly dry today... High Impact Weather Potential...None. Last vestiges of the strong upper level trough axis continues to exit eastward away from Michigan early this morning...as broad low level ridging builds into the Western Great Lakes region. Skies are clear across our entire CWA attm...with temps mainly in the 50s. High pressure will remain centered over the Western Great Lakes today and tonight...resulting in mainly dry wx and mainly clear skies. Light wind regime will lend to some lake breeze development this afternoon...especially along our Lake Huron shoreline. Some enhanced low level convergence across portions of NE Lower Michigan as lake breezes develop may lead to a few showers this afternoon/ early evening. Light winds tonight will also lead to some patchy fog development later tonight. Temps will certainly moderate today from our recent below normal temps over the weekend. High temps this afternoon will warm into the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. Clear skies and light/calm winds tonight will again allow temps to cool into the 50s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 309 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: Upper trough starting to open up and depart the Upper Great Lakes; northerly flow on the backside of this into northern Michigan...hitting NW-SE oriented deformation/col axis and dry slot stretching from Alberta to SW MI. General surface high overspreading the bulk of the central continent...though some activity along the backside of the deformation axis over the Dakotas into the central Plains. Most of the activity and deeper moisture over the southern US/eastern Seaboard; moisture has wrapped around the southern stream ridge into northern TX/OK, where a boundary resides that connects to aforementioned eastern seaboard moisture pooling/BCZ. Much quieter weather returning to the Great Lakes just in time for a good northern lights show and the Perseid Meteor Shower peak. Expecting upper trough to continue to depart...with nebulous col region to overspread the area Tuesday. General high pressure expected to be in place, though will have to keep an eye out for some subtle disturbances in the flow that could help perturb a few pop-up showers and storms over parts of the area. Ridge axis finally tries to move in Wednesday, and will expect largely improving conditions. Still not a hundred percent clear that we won`t have additional subtle disturbances to contend with Wednesday as well, though bulk of any activity should remain well to our southwest over the Plains. General troughing currently over the PacNW to slip eastward going into the latter half of the week, which looks to approach for Thursday/Friday...potentially settling into the Upper Great Lakes in the form of another upper low for the upcoming weekend. If this idea verifies...will expect another unsettled/wet and cool weekend for mid August. Primary Forecast Concerns: Afternoon pop-ups Tuesday?... Setup is relatively favorable for afternoon pop-ups. Not a sure bet, as it`s possible we may end up too dry in the boundary layer to promote better instability with diurnal heating...and there are also some signals that there could be some layers aloft to keep any convective activity from getting very deep at all, which would also preclude afternoon activity. However...not sure that we`ll be able to scrub out as much of the lingering boundary layer moisture as expected, plus we should, at least weakly, be under the influence of some return flow that should keep the moisture around...and potential for a little bit of weak PVA as well. Plan to keep at least slight chances of pops in for now, though not intending to go too bullish. Also think we could hold onto some afternoon pop-up chances Wednesday afternoon, particularly with some potential for a little bit of an upper disturbance to slip in Wednesday as well...though also some potential we may again be too warm aloft to allow for any kind of deeper convective development. Rain returns Thursday/Friday... More certainty tonight in the idea of a trough approaching the Upper Midwest Thursday (and likely hanging out into the end of the week). Current pattern suggests we`ll have a developing surface low approach from the west/southwest, which should also have a good feed of moisture off the gulf...which indicates some potential for another round of warm advective rain somewhere across the Upper Midwest. Not impossible there could be some heavy rain concerns, as it looks like this system may end up being slow to depart the region...and do think we`ll have to keep an eye on our area, as signals are not as strong for a sharp northern gradient to the precip as sometimes occurs. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 139 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 VFR conditions across the board today as high pressure moves overhead. Only caveat will be if any isolated shower activity can intrude on APN... otherwise, winds go calm again tonight, though patchy fog looks to develop, with potential reductions to at least MVFR and IFR in spots... particularly PLN, CIU, and MBL late tonight into Tuesday morning. Expecting that fog to lift through the morning and a prompt return to VFR conditions across the board by late Tuesday morning. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...HAD SHORT TERM...MLR LONG TERM...FEF AVIATION...HAD