Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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925 FXUS63 KAPX 171455 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1055 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Continued threat for more showers and a few thunderstorms through tonight. - Showers linger on Sunday, pleasant weather next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1045 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024 No major changes to the forecast with the slow moving upper level low pressure system centered across the region today. Scattered to numerous showers will continue with perhaps a few rumbles of thunder mixed in. Could see additional heavy downpours with precipitable water values holding steady between a moist 1.5 and 1.75 inches. It`ll be muggy as well with the low overcast keeping temperatures from rising too much more (generally low and mid 70s for highs). && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 252 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Pattern Synopsis/Pattern Forecast: Most obvious feature of interest on the regional weather analysis early this morning is well defined mid/upper level low pressure working slowly east along the Wisconsin/Upper Michigan line. Embedded impulses rotating counterclockwise around this low, the most defined of which is pivoting into central lower Michigan. Fairly organized area of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms tied to this embedded impulse, with generally more scattered activity rotating around the broader circulation. Upper level low and its attendant surface reflection will continue to work east, cutting directly across lower Michigan today...exiting slowly off to the east tonight. Combination of attendant forcing and plentiful moisture will continue to fire off showers and a few storms today and tonight. Primary Forecast Concerns: Shower and storm evolution through tonight and addressing any heavy rain concerns. Details: Scattered to numerous showers will continue to percolate across the area today and tonight. Although cloud cover will be abundant, simple limited daytime warming should only help the shower producing cause as we head into this afternoon and early evening. All those clouds will definitely put a limit on instability, but expected generation of several hundred Joules/kg of boundary layer cape will be enough to support some embedded thunderstorms. Definitely not expecting anything severe, but suppose a brief gust of wet- microburst produced winds are possible with any more organized activity. "Skinny" cape profiles through the entirety of the convective depth and precipitable water values near or in excess of 1.50 inches continue to support rather efficient rain-making processes. Showers/storms expected to remain somewhat transient, limiting overall duration of activity at any one particular location. Still, expected rainfall rates in excess of an inch per hour at times will likely generate small pockets of heavier rain totals...likely in excess of an inch on a localized basis. Could see some ponding in poor drainage areas or an area roadways, but not expecting any significant flooding concern. Abundant clouds and those showers will result in a minimal diurnal temperature response today, with highs only expected to top out in the lower and middle 70s. And those clouds and showers will help keep readings from falling too much tonight, with lows only bottoming out into the lower and middle 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 252 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Upper and subsequent sfc low that has been plaguing the region the last few days will linger for one more day on Sunday. Consequently, isolated to scattered showers and convection will develop, especially earlier in the day and east of I-75 (closer to the richer moisture and lift). Expect breezy northerly flow (gusts 20 to 30 mph) behind this system as the pressure gradient briefly tightens, especially over the Lakes. By the late afternoon/evening hours, this northerly flow advects in drier sfc air cutting off any remaining low end instability, thus waning precipitation chances. Absolutely picture perfect start to the new work week. Deep north- northwesterly flow will usher in a dry, humidless airmass. Cool nights, afternoons in the 70s, full sun; just some of the characteristics of the early to middle portions of next week. Subtle height rises by the end of next week with result in a slow warming trend back up to around 80 degrees with minimal appreciable precipitation opportunities. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 628 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Expecting a mixture of IFR to MVFR condtions this morning, along with passing showers. Some improvement expected this afternoon, with more lower cigs likely arriving tonight. Shower threat will continue into tonight, with perhaps a few rumbles of thunder as well. Any storms will be capable of producing quick drops in visibilities with heavy rain. No significant wind concerns through the period. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...AJS SHORT TERM...MSB LONG TERM...JLD AVIATION...MSB