843
FXUS63 KAPX 251052
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
652 AM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain/storm chances return late tonight, lasting through Friday. A
stronger storm or two is possible, especially toward M-55 Thursday.

- Heavy rain possible tonight through Friday, especially Thursday
night

- Additional storm chances through the rest of the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 326 AM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Ridge axis rotating a bit more toward the central US...becoming
flattened out over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes as pieces of PV
rotate through central/eastern Canada; 120+kt upper jet to our north
attm overtop a tighter thermal gradient for a change...with
downright hot weather fading southward as a weak boundary/col region
sinks through Michigan. Bit of split flow trying to take shape
across the western US...with subtle ridging over the PacNW and
troughing down into SoCal. Western US remains largely dry compared
to areas beneath the ridge...where pwats of 1.5+inches prevail,
particularly along the perimeter of the ridge...picking up a bit of
monsoonal moisture from New Mexico on its trek into the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes. However...a bit of drier air oozing in from the
north as high pressure spins across Lake Superior, with dewpoints in
the mid 40s across the EUP.

Piece of PV rotating across Ontario attm will continue to head
eastward today...allowing for heights to build across the Upper MS
Valley again...as a bit of energy begins to eject from the SW US.
Moisture return along and north of the old boundary as the wave
tracks into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes will result in additional
rain and thunder chances going into Thursday and Friday.
Southwesterly flow strengthens again across the Upper Midwest this
weekend, particularly Sunday, as additional energy treks along the
International Border. Flow across western Canada then looks to
amplify, resulting in troughing digging into the region early next
week. This suggests shower/storm chances hanging on right into the
end of the weekend/start of the work week...along with the potential
for a cooling trend into the start of July.

Primary Forecast Concerns through Tonight:

Rain chances/return of rain chances...A few showers/sprinkles may
remain possible along the M-55 corridor today, closer to the
boundary and better moisture. Think most of the area will remain dry
today, though...until return flow begins to pick up to our west late
this afternoon, leading to development of warm advection
showers/storms from WI eastward into NW Lower. Initial setup across
the Upper Midwest has the appearance of a Maddox Frontal type setup
for heavy rain...thus, the first round of heavy rain concerns is
tonight. Best shower/storm chances should remain to our west
initially...but better forcing should make its way into the region
through the night from the west as the LLJ veers with time. Do
wonder if the LLJ may be a little too parallel to the boundary to
maximize the heavy rain threat for us as opposed to points
westward...but setup is still favorable enough to warrant concern.
Additionally...will have to see how aggressive drying is today to
see if this will have any impact on how quickly rain can start to
move in. Does appear some elevated instability will try to sneak in
late tonight, which should bring in some rumbles of thunder.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 326 AM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Primary forecast concerns into next weekend:

Heavy rain threat Thursday/Friday...Still have concerns about heavy
rain potential somewhere across the area, though not expecting it
necessarily all at once. Think there may actually be a break...or at
least, a break in the better action...during the day on Thursday,
with signals for deeper moisture to depart for a time, leaving us
stuck under a low level stratus deck north of the front. Best
signals for heavy rain to take place, potentially for us, appear to
be Thursday night as the PV max approaches, providing additional
support for forcing across the region. Still a lot of question as to
where the heaviest corridor of rainfall will develop...but think
somewhere in the vicinity of the Tip of the Mitt/EUP is a reasonable
risk area attm given current expectation for the surface front to
stall somewhere across central Michigan Thursday...as the heaviest
precip should be driven by synoptic/fgen forcing well north of the
surface front. Going into Friday...lingering deep moisture combined
with potential for forcing along the cold front as the surface
system tracks across the area could certainly lead to some better
rainfall totals with convection...though signals for heavy rain may
not be quite as good Friday as opposed to Thursday night for us.
Probabilistic guidance is hinting at decent potential for at least
an inch in 24hrs centered on Thursday night, but suspect uncertainty
in position of the heavier swaths of rain is causing probabilistic
guidance to wash out greater confidence in amounts. Anomalous
moisture plus a favorable heavy rain setup, though, suggests some
area (whether over us or WI) could see a couple inches or more of
rain by Friday afternoon.

Thunder threat Thursday/Friday...Primary concern for severe weather
remains centered on the position of the front Thursday...as that
should be the cutoff for better convective instability. Current
expectation brings the front up toward US-10/M-55 during the
afternoon...and this is where the greater threat for stronger
convection lies, as it would have a better shot at being surface
based. Not entirely dissimilar to the last event...better shear may
remain north of the boundary and disconnected from best
instability/forcing and limit better storm organization. This being
said...noting guidance soundings progging some elevated instability
north of the front (albeit with a strong low-level inversion)...do
wonder if we could end up with some stronger embedded convection
within the more stratiform-esque rain. Think perhaps a better chance
for stronger storms in the region could be Friday, depending on the
track of the surface low and timing of cold front it will most
likely be dragging along with it...as some guidance would like to
develop some better instability ahead of whatever forcing is
attendant to the surface low.

Additional potential for storms through the period...For
now...expecting Saturday night into Sunday to be dry. However...with
ridge building across the Upper Midwest again...not impossible we
could end up with some MCS development upstream Saturday night that
tries to track in Sunday...which could strongly cool highs Sunday
compared to current thoughts (upper 80s to near 90 is possible again
otherwise)...and perhaps throw a wrench into instability available
Sunday...though lots of time between now and then to figure this
out. Otherwise...late Sunday into Monday looks like a favorable
timeframe for additional convection as the upper trough approaches
the region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 652 AM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

VFR today, though some areas of MVFR cigs will settle just south
of MBL. Clouds thicken and lower tonight, and some showers break
out at TVC/MBL, with a smaller chance for the other sites. MVFR
cigs/vsbys are at least briefly possible. Light n to ne winds.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FEF
LONG TERM...FEF
AVIATION...JZ