950
FXUS63 KAPX 131045
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
645 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm temperatures through this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

...Warm and dry again today...

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Large area of strong high pressure remains centered over the Upper
Midwest and the entire Great Lakes region early this morning...
providing clear skies and light/calm winds. Little will change over
the next 24 hours as this feature holds over our area...resulting in
the maintenance of mostly clear skies and dry wx. Relative light
wind regime will allow for lake breeze development again this
afternoon.

Expect another warm mid August day across our Northwoods with
afternoon highs mainly in the lower 80s. Low temps tonight will cool
into the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Broad pattern across the CONUS has departing troughing over the
eastern US, southern stream ridge axis stretching from the Lower MS
Valley up through the western Plains into Canada. Surface BCZ
generally follows this...from Alberta down to OK and along the Gulf
Coast...where the bulk of the convective activity is focused, and
where better moisture axis is as well, thanks largely to return flow
off the Gulf. Closer to home...deformation axis and a few niblets
(one swirling across the M-55 corridor as of 3z, with little to show
but a few high clouds) stretch NW to SE over the Upper
Midwest...amid broad 1020mb surface high centered over MN. Warmer
yesterday with temps much closer to normal as 850mb temps rose above
10C again.

Ridge axis slowly slips overhead by Wednesday, but the next bit of
active weather will be quick to return Thursday...with potential for
warm advection activity ahead of a developing surface low upstream.
This surface low and its attendant troughing aloft will slowly
meander through the Great Lakes for the latter part of the week,
with T.C. Ernesto eventually getting absorbed into the trough.
Longwave pattern appears to turn blocky for the latter half of the
week into next weekend...with a blocking ridge looking to set up
over the western US...and troughing subsequently settling into the
eastern US/Great Lakes for mid August.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Rain/storm potential late week; possibly heavy rain?...Pattern attm
suggests we may have a good feed of moisture off the gulf ahead of
the system Thursday. Pwats could ramp up around 1.5in or better,
which would be well toward the top end of climatology for this time
of year. Does appear we`ll generally be in a favorable position with
respect to the surface low for more widespread precipitation, and
combined with good forcing (not only with the low, but from aloft as
well, with somewhat favorable upper jet position), think we may need
to keep a close eye on this going forward. Surface low track further
north (potentially northern WI/Northern MI), combined with signals
for moist, southeasterly low-level flow, suggests the atmosphere
will not struggle much with top-down saturation as we sometimes do
on this side of systems. Other concern with respect to heavy rain is
that we may very well be in for a prolonged period of rainfall,
noting the trough (and subsequently, moisture) should be slow to
depart the region...and we could end up with a bit of trowal-y type
rain on the backside of the system Friday into Saturday morning.
Certainly not out of the question the main show may be further
south...but I don`t think we`re out of the woods...and at the very
least, much of the area should get a nice soaking rain. (Ensemble
guidance suggests decent confidence in an inch of rain over 24hrs,
especially along and south of M-72 Thursday into Friday morning.

Also think we`ll have some elevated instability around, which
suggests some potential for storms, especially if we get into the
warm sector of this system at all (most likely on Friday)...though
not clear if forcing will be strong enough to overcome some
potential capping layers in the mid levels.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Strong high pressure centered over the Great Lakes region will
maintain dry wx and mainly VFR conditions today and tonight.
Some patchy fog will again develop late tonight...dropping
conditions to IFR in a few spots. Light winds will allow for
lake breeze development again this afternoon.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MLR
LONG TERM...FEF
AVIATION...MLR