Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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332 FXUS63 KAPX 131718 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 118 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm temperatures through this week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1026 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 No changes to the ongoing forecast at this time. Still expecting high pressure to keep things on the dry side for the time being. Any area fog is slowly lifting, and the expectation is that temperatures recover quite well from morning lows in the 40s and 50s... eventually topping out into the 80s pretty much across the board. Differential heating and light northerly / north-northwesterly flow should allow for lake breeze processes to commence off of both lakes... particularly Lake Huron... as we progress through the day. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 240 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Warm and dry again today... High Impact Weather Potential...None. Large area of strong high pressure remains centered over the Upper Midwest and the entire Great Lakes region early this morning... providing clear skies and light/calm winds. Little will change over the next 24 hours as this feature holds over our area...resulting in the maintenance of mostly clear skies and dry wx. Relative light wind regime will allow for lake breeze development again this afternoon. Expect another warm mid August day across our Northwoods with afternoon highs mainly in the lower 80s. Low temps tonight will cool into the mid to upper 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 240 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: Broad pattern across the CONUS has departing troughing over the eastern US, southern stream ridge axis stretching from the Lower MS Valley up through the western Plains into Canada. Surface BCZ generally follows this...from Alberta down to OK and along the Gulf Coast...where the bulk of the convective activity is focused, and where better moisture axis is as well, thanks largely to return flow off the Gulf. Closer to home...deformation axis and a few niblets (one swirling across the M-55 corridor as of 3z, with little to show but a few high clouds) stretch NW to SE over the Upper Midwest...amid broad 1020mb surface high centered over MN. Warmer yesterday with temps much closer to normal as 850mb temps rose above 10C again. Ridge axis slowly slips overhead by Wednesday, but the next bit of active weather will be quick to return Thursday...with potential for warm advection activity ahead of a developing surface low upstream. This surface low and its attendant troughing aloft will slowly meander through the Great Lakes for the latter part of the week, with T.C. Ernesto eventually getting absorbed into the trough. Longwave pattern appears to turn blocky for the latter half of the week into next weekend...with a blocking ridge looking to set up over the western US...and troughing subsequently settling into the eastern US/Great Lakes for mid August. Primary Forecast Concerns: Rain/storm potential late week; possibly heavy rain?...Pattern attm suggests we may have a good feed of moisture off the gulf ahead of the system Thursday. Pwats could ramp up around 1.5in or better, which would be well toward the top end of climatology for this time of year. Does appear we`ll generally be in a favorable position with respect to the surface low for more widespread precipitation, and combined with good forcing (not only with the low, but from aloft as well, with somewhat favorable upper jet position), think we may need to keep a close eye on this going forward. Surface low track further north (potentially northern WI/Northern MI), combined with signals for moist, southeasterly low-level flow, suggests the atmosphere will not struggle much with top-down saturation as we sometimes do on this side of systems. Other concern with respect to heavy rain is that we may very well be in for a prolonged period of rainfall, noting the trough (and subsequently, moisture) should be slow to depart the region...and we could end up with a bit of trowal-y type rain on the backside of the system Friday into Saturday morning. Certainly not out of the question the main show may be further south...but I don`t think we`re out of the woods...and at the very least, much of the area should get a nice soaking rain. (Ensemble guidance suggests decent confidence in an inch of rain over 24hrs, especially along and south of M-72 Thursday into Friday morning. Also think we`ll have some elevated instability around, which suggests some potential for storms, especially if we get into the warm sector of this system at all (most likely on Friday)...though not clear if forcing will be strong enough to overcome some potential capping layers in the mid levels. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 118 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 VFR conditions across the board this afternoon as high pressure holds dominant over northern Michigan. Perhaps some diurnal cumulus in spots, though with CIGs likely holding 5,000ft or higher. Lake breezes will be active today, but winds will again turn calm. This, combined with clear skies, will lead to more fog potential tonight, particularly at MBL. Any fog again lifts through the morning tomorrow, with VFR conditions returning across the board for the day tomorrow. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...HAD SHORT TERM...MLR LONG TERM...FEF AVIATION...HAD