267
FXUS63 KAPX 131835
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
235 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High pressure keeps things dry the next couple days with
  summer-like warmth firmly in place.

- Wetter weather to end the work week and start the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Pattern Synopsis / Forecast: Continued influence of high pressure
has led to cloud cover once again being suppressed to some lingering
high cirrus and shallow fair weather cumulus clouds, with
temperatures once again recovering from their lows in the 40s and
50s this morning into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Will expect this
trend to continue the remainder of the day and again tomorrow, with
little to none in the way of sensible weather. Some patchy fog again
possible tonight, but overall, expecting another clear and calm
night with lows bottoming out in the 50s, perhaps upper 40s in the
coldest interior low spots (Grayling, Pellston, Mio, etc.).
Aforementioned trend of quiet weather carries into tomorrow, with
more sunshine and warm temperatures across the board. May need to
watch some lake breeze convergence across the central Yoop for some
shower development, but that activity is largely expected to hold to
points west of Newberry and Manistique at this juncture. Could also
be some intrusions of clouds toward the Manistee / Cadillac area
late tomorrow as low pressure begins to approach, but overall the
next chance of rain will hold off through the short term forecast
period. Highs tomorrow largely in the low-to-mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Pattern/synopsis: If there`s a weekend on the way, it must mean an
upper low is inbound too. Shortwave ridging is overhead Wed night,
but that is just ahead of a closing-off shortwave trof in the
Dakotas. That moves steadily eastward, and will be overhead as we
start the weekend. We will transition to wetter and somewhat
cooler weather beginning late this week.

Forecast: Increasing warm/moist advection and deep southerly flow
will overcome initially dry air, especially as the shortwave ridging
slowly moves downstream. Showers/perhaps t-storms will try to make
an initial push into the area on Thursday (especially in nw lower MI
in the afternoon). The most widespread/heaviest precip will advance
in an nw-se arc across the area Thu night/Friday. (Nw lower MI may
be influenced by a dry slot for part of Friday.) Anticipate too much
cloud cover this far north to allow for significant destabilization
for strong/svr storms, at least thru Thu night. Perhaps a little dry
slotting on Friday could change that? Still feels unlikely. Heavy
rain is much more likely, with most places seeing 0.50-1.50" of
rain, and with locally higher amounts possible.

This system does eventually weaken and shift east. But with TC
Ernesto expected to be moving northward over the western Atlantic at
this time, ejection may be slower than currently progged by the
models. Wetter wx should linger into Saturday at least, with precip
becoming more sct into Sat night/Sunday before ending. Relatively
dry nw flow gets established after that for early next week. Maybe
another upper low looms just beyond this forecast period.

The incoming airmass with this weekend`s system does not look as
cool as this past weekend. Highs mid 70s to lower 80s Thu, mostly
70s for the rest of the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 118 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

VFR conditions across the board this afternoon as high pressure
holds dominant over northern Michigan. Perhaps some diurnal cumulus
in spots, though with CIGs likely holding 5,000ft or higher. Lake
breezes will be active today, but winds will again turn calm. This,
combined with clear skies, will lead to more fog potential tonight,
particularly at MBL. Any fog again lifts through the morning
tomorrow, with VFR conditions returning across the board for the day
tomorrow.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAD
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...HAD