Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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237 FXUS63 KAPX 140338 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1138 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - High pressure keeps things dry the next couple days with summer-like warmth firmly in place. - Wetter weather to end the work week and start the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 848 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 No changes needed to inherited forecast. Skies will remain mostly clear tonight as high pressure centers right across the region. Combination of those clear skies and light/calm winds will allow a good nocturnal temperature response. Much like last night, looking for low temperatures to drop well down into the 50s across interior areas...with some of our colder locations likely making a run into the upper 40s. Those cool temperatures will allow some patchy fog to form, especially near inland bodies of water and in more open areas. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 235 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Pattern Synopsis / Forecast: Continued influence of high pressure has led to cloud cover once again being suppressed to some lingering high cirrus and shallow fair weather cumulus clouds, with temperatures once again recovering from their lows in the 40s and 50s this morning into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Will expect this trend to continue the remainder of the day and again tomorrow, with little to none in the way of sensible weather. Some patchy fog again possible tonight, but overall, expecting another clear and calm night with lows bottoming out in the 50s, perhaps upper 40s in the coldest interior low spots (Grayling, Pellston, Mio, etc.). Aforementioned trend of quiet weather carries into tomorrow, with more sunshine and warm temperatures across the board. May need to watch some lake breeze convergence across the central Yoop for some shower development, but that activity is largely expected to hold to points west of Newberry and Manistique at this juncture. Could also be some intrusions of clouds toward the Manistee / Cadillac area late tomorrow as low pressure begins to approach, but overall the next chance of rain will hold off through the short term forecast period. Highs tomorrow largely in the low-to-mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 235 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Pattern/synopsis: If there`s a weekend on the way, it must mean an upper low is inbound too. Shortwave ridging is overhead Wed night, but that is just ahead of a closing-off shortwave trof in the Dakotas. That moves steadily eastward, and will be overhead as we start the weekend. We will transition to wetter and somewhat cooler weather beginning late this week. Forecast: Increasing warm/moist advection and deep southerly flow will overcome initially dry air, especially as the shortwave ridging slowly moves downstream. Showers/perhaps t-storms will try to make an initial push into the area on Thursday (especially in nw lower MI in the afternoon). The most widespread/heaviest precip will advance in an nw-se arc across the area Thu night/Friday. (Nw lower MI may be influenced by a dry slot for part of Friday.) Anticipate too much cloud cover this far north to allow for significant destabilization for strong/svr storms, at least thru Thu night. Perhaps a little dry slotting on Friday could change that? Still feels unlikely. Heavy rain is much more likely, with most places seeing 0.50-1.50" of rain, and with locally higher amounts possible. This system does eventually weaken and shift east. But with TC Ernesto expected to be moving northward over the western Atlantic at this time, ejection may be slower than currently progged by the models. Wetter wx should linger into Saturday at least, with precip becoming more sct into Sat night/Sunday before ending. Relatively dry nw flow gets established after that for early next week. Maybe another upper low looms just beyond this forecast period. The incoming airmass with this weekend`s system does not look as cool as this past weekend. Highs mid 70s to lower 80s Thu, mostly 70s for the rest of the forecast. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1137 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Still looking at some patchy fog/mist developing early this morning, especially at KMBL and KCIU. Any fog/mist should lift quickly around sunrise, leaving behind VFR conditions under just some passing high clouds and high based cumulus today. Light winds with local lake breeze development again this afternoon. Winds go light to calm again this evening. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...MSB SHORT TERM...HAD LONG TERM...JZ AVIATION...MSB