201
FXUS63 KAPX 171742
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
142 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued threat for more showers and a few thunderstorms
  through tonight.

- Showers linger on Sunday, pleasant weather next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

No major changes to the forecast with the slow moving upper
level low pressure system centered across the region today.
Scattered to numerous showers will continue with perhaps a few
rumbles of thunder mixed in. Could see additional heavy
downpours with precipitable water values holding steady between
a moist 1.5 and 1.75 inches. It`ll be muggy as well with the
low overcast keeping temperatures from rising too much more
(generally low and mid 70s for highs).

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Pattern Synopsis/Pattern Forecast:

Most obvious feature of interest on the regional weather analysis
early this morning is well defined mid/upper level low pressure
working slowly east along the Wisconsin/Upper Michigan line.
Embedded impulses rotating counterclockwise around this low, the
most defined of which is pivoting into central lower Michigan.
Fairly organized area of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms
tied to this embedded impulse, with generally more scattered
activity rotating around the broader circulation.

Upper level low and its attendant surface reflection will continue
to work east, cutting directly across lower Michigan today...exiting
slowly off to the east tonight. Combination of attendant forcing and
plentiful moisture will continue to fire off showers and a few
storms today and tonight.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Shower and storm evolution through tonight and addressing any
heavy rain concerns.

Details:

Scattered to numerous showers will continue to percolate across the
area today and tonight. Although cloud cover will be abundant,
simple limited daytime warming should only help the shower producing
cause as we head into this afternoon and early evening. All those
clouds will definitely put a limit on instability, but expected
generation of several hundred Joules/kg of boundary layer cape will
be enough to support some embedded thunderstorms. Definitely not
expecting anything severe, but suppose a brief gust of wet-
microburst produced winds are possible with any more organized
activity. "Skinny" cape profiles through the entirety of the
convective depth and precipitable water values near or in excess of
1.50 inches continue to support rather efficient rain-making
processes. Showers/storms expected to remain somewhat transient,
limiting overall duration of activity at any one particular
location. Still, expected rainfall rates in excess of an inch per
hour at times will likely generate small pockets of heavier rain
totals...likely in excess of an inch on a localized basis. Could see
some ponding in poor drainage areas or an area roadways, but not
expecting any significant flooding concern.

Abundant clouds and those showers will result in a minimal diurnal
temperature response today, with highs only expected to top out in
the lower and middle 70s. And those clouds and showers will help
keep readings from falling too much tonight, with lows only
bottoming out into the lower and middle 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Upper and subsequent sfc low that has been plaguing the region the
last few days will linger for one more day on Sunday. Consequently,
isolated to scattered showers and convection will develop,
especially earlier in the day and east of I-75 (closer to the richer
moisture and lift). Expect breezy northerly flow (gusts 20 to 30
mph) behind this system as the pressure gradient briefly tightens,
especially over the Lakes. By the late afternoon/evening hours, this
northerly flow advects in drier sfc air cutting off any remaining
low end instability, thus waning precipitation chances.

Absolutely picture perfect start to the new work week. Deep north-
northwesterly flow will usher in a dry, humidless airmass. Cool
nights, afternoons in the 70s, full sun; just some of the
characteristics of the early to middle portions of next week. Subtle
height rises by the end of next week with result in a slow warming
trend back up to around 80 degrees with minimal appreciable
precipitation opportunities.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 139 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Upper level low pressure will continue to bring scattered
showers and chances of thunderstorms into Sunday morning. Cigs
will be a tough call and will likely vary across each taf site.
Overall, general IFR cigs are anticipated with clouds
scattering out across CIU and possibly PLN toward the end of the
taf period. Winds will be generally light and variable into
tonight before becoming a bit gusty out of the north Sunday
morning.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AJS
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...MSB/AJS