Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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476 FXUS63 KAPX 151342 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 942 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Shower and thunderstorm chances increase this afternoon and tonight. - Unsettled wx continues thru this weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 942 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 High pressure over central PA will continue to move eastward. An occluded low is near GFK. Southerly return flow is underway, though actual moistening is in its very early stages. (12Z APX observed Pwat 0.78", vs 0.72" 24 hours ago.) Cirrus is expanding and thickening over northern MI, but actual precip is only slowly advancing across central/se WI and southern Lake MI. (Rain has recently begun at MKE.) Cloud cover will continue to increase and thicken. Initial precip chances will eventually push into nw lower MI (MBL area in particular), toward and after 4pm. Best chance for any showers thru 00Z/8pm will remain west of a TVC-Lake City line (though better chances for precip will be after that). Max temps will be warmest out ahead of the thicker cloud cover. Highs range from near 80f near MBL/CAD...to the mid 80s for ANJ/PLN/APN. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 247 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Increasing chances of showers and storms this afternoon and tonight... High Impact Weather Potential...Chances of non-severe thunderstorms will steadily increase this afternoon into tonight. Strong high pressure center continues to slowly push eastward away from Michigan and into the NW US early this morning. Skies remain clear across our entire CWA attm...but a look upstream at both observed and model data shows big changes are on the way. Complex area of low pressure continues to develop to the lee of the Rockies over the Northern and Central Plains...generating several areas of convection along and ahead of it. As we head into today...deepening upper level trough axis will dig into the Northern Plains...with a closed upper level low developing over Minnesota tonight as the upper trough slides into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Leading edge of deepening moisture ahead of this system will gradually push eastward into Eastern Upper and Northern Lower Michigan today and tonight...resulting in increasing chances of showers and storms from SW to NE across our CWA by this afternoon and thru tonight. Instability will initially be very limited as precip develops...thus chances of thunder will be small with no threat of severe storms thru tonight. Temps will remain warm today with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s. Low temps tonight will cool into the lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 247 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Main weather feature will be an upper low and subsequent sfc low pressure & frontal systems for the Friday and Saturday time frame. Nice fetch of moist air will advect into northern Michigan on Friday with dewpoint values rising well into the 60s fostering minor to perhaps moderate instability (depending on the mesoscale evolution of the environment). Generally "weak" winds aloft, and thus wind shear generally approaching 20-25kts. All this to say certainly a marginal environment that may be capable of a couple of robust storms if they can take advantage of the unstable atmosphere (given enough clearing and energy remains), marginal wind shear, and dynamic forcing later Friday. Low level and column moisture are well above the mean for this time of year and thus pockets of heavy rainfall will be possible as well, Friday afternoon and into the overnight. Showers and embedded convection will remain into Saturday as lift from the upper low tracks right through the center of the state. Would be very efficient rainfall if convection is able to manifest given the progged column saturation and skinny capes. Could be a couple of inches of rain in some areas over the course of the Friday-Saturday time frame. Minor flooding impacts will be reserved for training thunderstorms and/or susceptible/poor drainage areas. Perhaps some lingering showers on the back edge of this system as a moist atmosphere remains on Sunday, but by the overnight hours things begin to settle down. Indications are a quieter period early to mid next week as this system moves east and a much drier airmass finally filters into the region (dewpoints drop into the low 50s at least). Will be another piece of energy in the vicinity of the area mid next week, but the richer moisture remains well to the west, thus right now have meager POPs in the fcst in the mid next week. High temperatures in the 70s for a majority of the fcst period. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 645 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Chances of showers and thunderstorms will gradually increase this afternoon and tonight ahead of a developing low pressure system entering the Western Great Lakes region. Conditions will drop to MVFR later this afternoon and tonight as this precip develops. Surface winds will be from the SE at around 10 kts. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...JZ SHORT TERM...MLR LONG TERM...JLD AVIATION...MLR