Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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164 FXUS63 KAPX 151949 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 349 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Shower and thunderstorm chances increase tonight. - Muggy and unsettled wx continues thru this weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 323 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Pattern/synopsis: High pressure extends from NY to NC, moving east. 1004mb occluded low pressure is over nw MN, with a closed 500mb low very slightly trailing. These systems become vertically stacked tonight, and move east to northern WI/western upper MI on Friday. Forecast: Initial band of showers (now over ne WI and southern Lake MI) will push into nw lower MI this evening. Rain overspreads eastern upper, n central and ne lower MI after midnight tonight. Most of this will not have thunder associated with it. Overnight, as somewhat cooler temps arrive aloft, and moisture increases in the low levels, some skinny MuCape develops, especially in western areas. A few thunderstorms will be possible, especially in nw lower MI. Rainfall totals of around 0.50" will be common tonight, away from ne lower MI. On Friday, that initial shower band will exit eastern and northern areas in the morning. The most prominent dry slotting will stay upstream in WI until almost evening, when it pushes into nw lower MI. Models have struggled with precip/cloud coverage on Friday, with inconsistent signals as to where we destabilize. The bulk of the models suggest a cloudier/grungier day, less in the way of sunshine, and much less in the way of SbCape returning. Destabilization is more likely in central/southern WI then here (though activity that develops there could take a run at our southern areas, especially Fri evening). We have enough moisture, instability, and forcing to support sct/nmrs showers/storms, especially early and again late in the day. Progged instability (500-700j/kg) and deep shear (0-6km bulk shear 20-25kt) are insufficient for much of a severe threat. If we see more sun than planned, severe storms could enter the equation again. But SPC has removed most of northern lower MI from a severe threat, leaving in roughly M-55 and south only. Lows tonight on the warm side, mid 60s for most. Highs Friday in the 70s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 323 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: The well advertised upper level low currently evident on water vapor imagery across the Dakotas will continue to make its way slowly across the area this weekend. This is expected to result in additional showers along with possible non-severe storms Friday night into Saturday. Precipitable water values between 1.5 and 1.75 inches portends possible heavy downpours. It`s a bit uncertain on if moisture/instability will linger into Sunday but it looks like there will still be enough in place to develop scattered showers (especially along and east of I-75). In addition, it will remain rather muggy through Sunday. Northwest flow aloft then develops early next week and holds through much of the work week. This will advect in a much more comfortable drier airmass. Nixed the slight chances for a few showers around mid-week due to model disagreement over a possible trough traversing the flow (a majority of guidance now weakens/wipes out this possible feature). Temperatures next week are expected to be in typical mid-August ranges with highs in the 70s and lows ranging from the mid 40s to the mid 50s. Proceeding that, lows will still be mainly in the sticky low and mid 60s for both Friday and Saturday nights. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 139 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Worsening conditions tonight into Friday. VFR presently. Precip now in WI will slowly expand eastward into northern MI as soon as this evening. Vsbys/cigs will gradually lower after rain arrives. All sites will become low-end MVFR to high-end IFR by very late tonight and/or Fri morning. Some embedded TSRA are also possible tonight. S to se surface winds, a touch gusty at times. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JZ LONG TERM...AJS AVIATION...JZ