Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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164 FXUS63 KAPX 081050 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 650 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and storms today. Best chances this afternoon with a few strong storms possible. - Lingering small shower and storm chances Tuesday. - Uncertainty remains on how far north the moisture from the remnants of Beryl reach during mid-week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 348 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Pattern Synopsis: Troughing currently centered over southern Canada and the upper Midwest will slide east today, spreading height falls over the Great Lakes into tonight. Forcing generated by said troughing aloft will support relatively weak surface pressure falls across the region as a diffuse front works across the area late this afternoon into tonight. Forecast Details: Scattered showers/storms today -- A few showers and an outside chance at a thunderstorm or two may work across northern lower this morning, but the main chances for showers and storms are expected to hold off until this afternoon. Southwesterly low-level flow will advect warm, moist air northward into the area, contributing to increasing buoyancy throughout the day. MLCAPE around 1,500-2,000 J/kg in place by this afternoon will support the potential for a few strong storms. However, overall meager shear (<30 kts 0-6 km shear) will greatly limit any higher-end severe potential today. That said, marginally severe hail and damaging wind gusts will still be possible with any strong storms this afternoon -- as was well discussed by the previous forecaster. Aforementioned buoyancy may provide enough support for any strong storms to briefly produce marginally severe hail with ample CAPE between -10 and -30, despite relatively weak deep-layer shear. Additionally, wind damage may be more likely with antecedent moist soil conditions across the area with the amount of rainfall we`ve received recently. Saturated ground will increase the likelihood of downed trees with strong thunderstorm winds, even with expected sub-severe criteria gusts given weak low-level flow in place. PWATs near 1.5" will support locally heavy rainfall across areas where any storms track, potentially leading to ponding/water on roadways with aforementioned saturated conditions. Those planning outdoor activities this afternoon and evening should stay tuned to the latest forecast for updates. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 348 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Forecast thinking this cycle is similar to what the day shift (JDL) talked about over the next few days. Perhaps a little lingering instability (200-300 J/kg of 0-1 km mixed layer cape) could spark an afternoon shower/weak storm Tuesday afternoon. This would be mainly for northeast lower. Attention then turns to the track of the remnants of Beryl (the hurricane is approaching the west Texas coast at this time). Weak troughing across the central states including the Great Lakes will steer the remains of the tropical system north northeastward over the next few days. Models offer a variety of possible tracks with the majority of guidance continuing to keep much of the associated moisture south and west of northern Michigan. Northeast lower, particularly near Saginaw Bay stands to see the best chances for showers and possible storms Wednesday into Thursday. Rising heights/warming temperatures aloft then likely to bring warmer temperatures along with increased humidity levels Friday and especially during the upcoming weekend. In addition, instability driven heating of the day showers and storm chances return once again this weekend. Temperatures will be around normal through Thursday followed by readings of a few degrees above normal mid-July levels Friday and especially this weekend when highs are expected to be mainly in the 80s region wide. Lows ranging from the muggy upper 50s to mid 60s through the period. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 650 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Mainly VFR flight conditions are expected across northern Michigan today. The primary concern will be the potential for scattered showers and storms across the area today, primarily this afternoon into this evening. The most likely sites to be impacted by storms later today will be PLN, CIU, and APN. A few storms will be capable of producing hail, strong wind gusts, and locally heavy rainfall. Drops to MVFR/IFR VSBYs will be possible should storms pass over any TAF sites. Otherwise, CIGs look to lower to IFR/LIFR thresholds later tonight across the eastern U.P., along with the potential for FG/BR development across this area. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DJC LONG TERM...AJS AVIATION...DJC