Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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388 FXUS63 KAPX 040258 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1058 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Pleasant 4th of July expected. - Showers and storms are expected to continue at times this weekend and next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1053 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Current forecast remains on track as ongoing showers across the eastern U.P. and Tip of the Mitt continue to track east. This activity is expected to diminish/move out over the next few hours, leaving dry conditions through the remainder of tonight. As mentioned in the short term below, localized fog development cannot be ruled out late tonight. Mostly to partly sunny skies with highs ranging from the upper 70s to mid 80s are in store for Independence Day. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 234 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Cold front responsible for last nights and this mornings showers has exited off into Lake Huron...made to do so by broad mid/upper level troughing digging across the northern Conus...including the Great Lakes. Classic west synoptic flow convergence axis setting up across interior eastern upper Michigan this afternoon, with just enough remnant low level moisture to kick off a few showers and thunderstorms as we head through the remainder of this afternoon. Otherwise, dry conditions with ever so slowly decreasing clouds across the majority of the Northwoods, with temperature rebounding well up into the 70s for most. Secondary and weak surface trough expected to work into the area tonight, to be followed by low amplitude shortwave ridging and attendant weak surface high for the 4th of July. Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Lingering shower/storm concerns into tonight. Temperature and cloud trends through the forecast. Details: Still expecting isolated to scattered showers and storms to impact parts of eastern upper Michigan the remainder of this afternoon into early evening. Not out of the question for a stronger storm or two, with decent wind shear through the convective cloud layer and localized pockets of enhanced low level convergence. At least some potential for a few showers to develop along that secondary surface trough later this evening into northwest lower Michigan. Convective allowing guidance sounding analysis shows just enough convergence/updraft potential to perhaps slide by elevated cap. Definitely not sold on this idea, and like the thought of just carrying some slight chance wording to cover. Otherwise, looking at dry conditions with perhaps a bit of local early morning fog. 4th of July setting up to be a pleasant one as weak high pressure settles overhead. Not completely out of the question to see an isolated afternoon shower across northeast lower and eastern upper Michigan where lake breeze generated convergence will be maximized. A warm Holiday under generally partly cloud skies, with highs ranging from the middle 70s to middle 80s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 234 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: Longwave troughing will keep the Great Lakes Region active throughout the long-term. A deepening low pressure system will track into the region for the weekend brining showers/storms. Weak shortwave ridging builds in behind before another low pressure is expected to track into the region early next week. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: - Weekend Precipitation Chances: A trough and its associated low pressure will dig across the Midwest and into the Great Lakes Region for Friday/ Saturday. Current guidance continues to show moderate instability and a deep moisture fetch (PWATS above 1.2") into the region for this weekend. As such, WPC continues to have Northern Michigan under a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for Friday. -Next Week Precipitation Chances: Behind the aforementioned trough, a shortwave ridge will build overhead Saturday night into Sunday morning providing some relief in the active weather. However, this break will be short-lived as another low pressure tracks towards the area for the start of next week (Sunday afternoon/ Monday). Temperatures will be cooler next week with daytime highs in the mid to upper 70s for most areas through at least mid-week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 728 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 VFR conditions are expected across northern Michigan through the majority of the issuance period. The exception may be CIU at times this evening if any strong showers/storms track over the TAF site. Localized FG/BR development is possible tonight with partly/mostly clear skies and weak winds, with MBL being the TAF site most likely to be impacted by any potential drops in VSBY. However, confidence in FG/BR is not currently high enough to explicitly include mention in the TAFs. Otherwise, FEW/SCT cu is anticipated during the day Thursday with west winds of 5-10 kts in place and potential lake breeze formation pushing inland from Lake Huron during the afternoon. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...DJC SHORT TERM...MSB LONG TERM...NSC AVIATION...DJC