197
FXUS63 KAPX 081338
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
938 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms today. Best chances this
  afternoon with a few strong storms possible.

- Lingering small shower and storm chances Tuesday.

- Uncertainty remains on how far north the moisture from the
  remnants of Beryl reach during mid-week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 937 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Current satellite and radar shows showers with a few embedded
thunderstorms/convection,largely south of M-55 at this time
(~1330Z). One particular storm of interest across portions of
Mecosta-Isabella county, will watch that in the next hour for any
signs of intensification (although admittedly looks to be
weakening). Activity should generally wane with time as it moves
northeast into the county warning area. Yet to be seen how this
swath of cloud cover/showers will impact the rest of today but any
daytime heating this afternoon will result in pop up showers and
thunderstorms. Environment is characterized by modest instability
and shear with above normal moisture and thus, isolated strong
storms will be possible with any of the more isolated, robust
updrafts (generally a gusty wind threat, but hail cannot be ruled
out as well). Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible. Activity
will diminish into the overnight hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 348 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Pattern Synopsis:

Troughing currently centered over southern Canada and the upper
Midwest will slide east today, spreading height falls over the Great
Lakes into tonight. Forcing generated by said troughing aloft will
support relatively weak surface pressure falls across the region as
a diffuse front works across the area late this afternoon into
tonight.

Forecast Details:

Scattered showers/storms today -- A few showers and an outside
chance at a thunderstorm or two may work across northern lower this
morning, but the main chances for showers and storms are expected to
hold off until this afternoon. Southwesterly low-level flow will
advect warm, moist air northward into the area, contributing to
increasing buoyancy throughout the day. MLCAPE around 1,500-2,000
J/kg in place by this afternoon will support the potential for a few
strong storms. However, overall meager shear (<30 kts 0-6 km shear)
will greatly limit any higher-end severe potential today. That said,
marginally severe hail and damaging wind gusts will still be
possible with any strong storms this afternoon -- as was well
discussed by the previous forecaster. Aforementioned buoyancy may
provide enough support for any strong storms to briefly produce
marginally severe hail with ample CAPE between -10 and -30, despite
relatively weak deep-layer shear. Additionally, wind damage may be
more likely with antecedent moist soil conditions across the area
with the amount of rainfall we`ve received recently. Saturated
ground will increase the likelihood of downed trees with strong
thunderstorm winds, even with expected sub-severe criteria gusts
given weak low-level flow in place. PWATs near 1.5" will support
locally heavy rainfall across areas where any storms track,
potentially leading to ponding/water on roadways with aforementioned
saturated conditions. Those planning outdoor activities this
afternoon and evening should stay tuned to the latest forecast for
updates.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 348 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Forecast thinking this cycle is similar to what the day shift (JDL)
talked about over the next few days. Perhaps a little lingering
instability (200-300 J/kg of 0-1 km mixed layer cape) could spark an
afternoon shower/weak storm Tuesday afternoon. This would be mainly
for northeast lower. Attention then turns to the track of the
remnants of Beryl (the hurricane is approaching the west Texas coast
at this time). Weak troughing across the central states including
the Great Lakes will steer the remains of the tropical system north
northeastward over the next few days. Models offer a variety of
possible tracks with the majority of guidance continuing to keep
much of the associated moisture south and west of northern Michigan.
Northeast lower, particularly near Saginaw Bay stands to see the
best chances for showers and possible storms Wednesday into
Thursday. Rising heights/warming temperatures aloft then likely to
bring warmer temperatures along with increased humidity levels
Friday and especially during the upcoming weekend. In addition,
instability driven heating of the day showers and storm chances
return once again this weekend. Temperatures will be around normal
through Thursday followed by readings of a few degrees above normal
mid-July levels Friday and especially this weekend when highs are
expected to be mainly in the 80s region wide. Lows ranging from the
muggy upper 50s to mid 60s through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 650 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Mainly VFR flight conditions are expected across northern Michigan
today. The primary concern will be the potential for scattered
showers and storms across the area today, primarily this afternoon
into this evening. The most likely sites to be impacted by storms
later today will be PLN, CIU, and APN. A few storms will be capable
of producing hail, strong wind gusts, and locally heavy rainfall.
Drops to MVFR/IFR VSBYs will be possible should storms pass over any
TAF sites. Otherwise, CIGs look to lower to IFR/LIFR thresholds
later tonight across the eastern U.P., along with the potential for
FG/BR development across this area.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JLD
SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...DJC