Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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101 FXUS63 KAPX 082300 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 700 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms diminish tonight. - Isolated showers and storms on Tuesday east of I-75. - While some uncertainty remains, the latest trends keep the bulk of remnants of Beryl to the south of northern Michigan. - Increasing warmth/humidity this weekend with more instability- driven shower/storm chances. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 318 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Generally lower heights to the north and west tonight with a feature aloft advecting through N MI into Tuesday morning. General west to southwest flow aloft Tuesday afternoon with the lower than normal heights flattening out as a jet streak moves through N MI into Canada. Weak west to northwest sfc flow will likely allow for some sort of marine influence and local convergence across the Lake Huron coastal sections during the afternoon hours, thus isolated storms possible. Primary Forecast Concerns: Marginal environment for strong thunderstorms will prevail this evening with isolated to scattered thunderstorms quickly diminishing with time overnight with both the loss of daytime heating and upper support. Still, cannot rule out a stronger storm or two early in the evening (environment of ~1000-1500J/kg of CAPE and ~30kts of bulk shear) producing gusty winds, hail, and/or locally heavy rain. Otherwise, mild overnight temperatures expected. Heading into Tuesday, flow washes out aloft, with weak west to northwest sfc winds. Consequently, looks to be a potential convergence zone near the lake shores of Lake Huron, especially southeast portions of the area. With modest moisture and lingering weak instability, chance for weak isolated thunderstorms east of I- 75. Not expecting severe thunderstorms on Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 318 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Pattern Forecast: By Tuesday evening, broad troughing anticipated across the nation`s midsection sandwiched between weak ridging off the East Coast and more amplified ridging/heat dome out west. Remnants of Hurricane Beryl expected to already be ingested into aforementioned troughing with ~1007mb surface low situated near southern IL/western KY. Focus through midweek will revolve around increased potential for wet weather as that system continues to trek northeast toward the Ohio Valley/southern Great Lakes. Late week into the weekend, rising heights will aid to promote increasing warmth and humidity across the Great Lakes. Potential also exists for more instability driven showers/storms Friday through the weekend. Forecast Details: Generally tranquil conditions anticipated Tuesday night with remnants of Beryl approaching from the southwest. While some uncertainty remains, latest ensemble means keep low pressure centered over the Ohio Valley on Wednesday with the highest probability for potentially impactful rain across IN/northern OH and southeast MI. Locally, the highest chances for showers associated with this system continue to be focused across southeastern areas, especially near Saginaw Bay through the day Wednesday. Additional uncertainties riddle the forecast Thursday with potential for lingering moisture and additional mid-level wave providing the impetus for at least low chances for showers/storms. Friday into the weekend, slowly rising heights are anticipated to aid in building heat/humidity back across northern Michigan. Latest trends support high temps well into the 80s/near 90 degrees for some by Saturday/Sunday. Instability-driven showers/storms become probable during this time frame, especially during peak heating each afternoon. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 700 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Weak surface front will continue to push east thru Lower Michigan this evening...with an upper level trough axis following close behind overnight. Waves of showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact much of Eastern Upper and Northern Lower Michigan tonight...with diminishing chances of convection late tonight once the upper trough moves thru and diurnal instability has waned. Prevailing low VFR conditions will occasionally drop to MVFR/IFR within heavier showers/storms...with prevailing conditions dropping to MVFR overnight into Tuesday morning. SW surface winds under 10 kts tonight into Tuesday morning will shift to the W/NW behind the cold front...but will be light enough to allow for lake breeze development by Tuesday afternoon. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JPB/DJC/JLD LONG TERM...MJG AVIATION...MLR