Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
961 FXUS63 KAPX 061858 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 258 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and storms Monday, a few may be strong. - Scattered thunderstorms again on Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 233 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Slight upper level ridging will build over head tonight. Drier air aloft will seep in as well, setting up a mostly clear night with calm winds. Patchy fog chances tonight in low spots and near lakes and rivers. High chances for fog to remain patchy due to shallow moisture near the surface. Warm temperatures, light winds and partly cloudy skies tomorrow. A lake breeze will likely form and help afternoon CU bubble up, however low to no chances for showers out of these as instability will be minimal. Skies will start to fill in towards the end of the period. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 233 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Trough slides east later Sunday into Monday across Upper Midwest, then washes out to the northeast into Tuesday resulting in periods of showers and thunderstorms. General north to south, or northwest to southeast flow aloft into the middle to latter portions of next week as sfc high pressure builds into the region. No major frontal systems, at least ones of varying moisture content as dewpoints remain in the 50s and 60s through the week. Upper low in the vicinity of Michigan into next weekend, but not progged to have a whole lot of consequence at this time. Primary Forecast Concerns: Southwest flow out ahead of an approaching upper feature, slow moving at that, Sunday night into Monday will result in clouds and showers overnight and into the morning. Instability will increase, on the order of ~1000J/kg, during the afternoon hours and this will result in the potential for scattered thunderstorms. Progged soundings show a modest environment overall, modest mid level lapse rates, ~30KTs of bulk shear/EBWD, thus an environment capable of producing strong thunderstorms (gusty winds, hail) given the right thermodynamic structure and storm mode is able to manifest. Unclear on how morning cloud cover/showers will impact the environment throughout the day but overall the potential remains for at least isolated strong thunderstorms in addition to areas of heavy rain. Not that all the eggs should be put in a basket via the 3km NAM, especially at the very end of the fcst cycle, but it does show some strong storms developing across northern lower Michigan. We`ll see how the atmosphere evolves in the coming fcst cycles. The atmosphere remains unstable on Tuesday, but with less shear and lift to work. Thus, thunderstorm threat will remain but largely sub- severe, at least the current thinking. Nevertheless, scattered storms expected especially east of 75 with locally heavy rain a threat. High pressure builds into the region later next week limiting overall storm coverage, although the moisture never really flushes out of the region entirely so may be an isolated chance here and there. Overall benign temperature swings as we remain within a few degrees of climatological normals. Murky thereafter but current guidance not pointing to anything large scale nor significant within this time frame at this time. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 125 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Improving to VFR conditions for most sites. IFR/MVFR cigs lingering over northern Lk Michigan coast terminals through ~20Z. Diurnally driven VCSH for terminals along and east of I-75. ISO TS chances along a lake breeze boundary pushing through the aforementioned area from 19Z through 02Z. VFR conditions should prevail for most terminals with low chances for occasional drops to MVFR/IFR near TSRA/RA. Patchy FG/BR chances after 06Z for KMBL/KCIU/KPLN which could drop vis and cigs to IFR/LIFR for morning flights. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ELD LONG TERM...JLD AVIATION...ELD