Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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194 FXUS63 KAPX 070212 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1012 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and storms Monday, a few may be strong. - Scattered thunderstorms again on Tuesday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 919 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Remarkably persistent diurnally-enhanced showers continue to percolate within regions of low level convergence maxima (both from lake breezes and earlier moist convection) this evening...with radar estimates showing over 2 inches of rain falling across southwest Roscommon County. Loss of all diurnal support should put an end to these showers within the next few hours. Only concern thereafter is potential for fog to develop, especially in areas that have experienced significant rains of late. Some of this fog could become a bit dense through the early morning hours. Lows tonight ranging through the 50s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 233 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Slight upper level ridging will build over head tonight. Drier air aloft will seep in as well, setting up a mostly clear night with calm winds. Patchy fog chances tonight in low spots and near lakes and rivers. High chances for fog to remain patchy due to shallow moisture near the surface. Warm temperatures, light winds and partly cloudy skies tomorrow. A lake breeze will likely form and help afternoon CU bubble up, however low to no chances for showers out of these as instability will be minimal. Skies will start to fill in towards the end of the period. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 233 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Trough slides east later Sunday into Monday across Upper Midwest, then washes out to the northeast into Tuesday resulting in periods of showers and thunderstorms. General north to south, or northwest to southeast flow aloft into the middle to latter portions of next week as sfc high pressure builds into the region. No major frontal systems, at least ones of varying moisture content as dewpoints remain in the 50s and 60s through the week. Upper low in the vicinity of Michigan into next weekend, but not progged to have a whole lot of consequence at this time. Primary Forecast Concerns: Southwest flow out ahead of an approaching upper feature, slow moving at that, Sunday night into Monday will result in clouds and showers overnight and into the morning. Instability will increase, on the order of ~1000J/kg, during the afternoon hours and this will result in the potential for scattered thunderstorms. Progged soundings show a modest environment overall, modest mid level lapse rates, ~30KTs of bulk shear/EBWD, thus an environment capable of producing strong thunderstorms (gusty winds, hail) given the right thermodynamic structure and storm mode is able to manifest. Unclear on how morning cloud cover/showers will impact the environment throughout the day but overall the potential remains for at least isolated strong thunderstorms in addition to areas of heavy rain. Not that all the eggs should be put in a basket via the 3km NAM, especially at the very end of the fcst cycle, but it does show some strong storms developing across northern lower Michigan. We`ll see how the atmosphere evolves in the coming fcst cycles. The atmosphere remains unstable on Tuesday, but with less shear and lift to work. Thus, thunderstorm threat will remain but largely sub- severe, at least the current thinking. Nevertheless, scattered storms expected especially east of 75 with locally heavy rain a threat. High pressure builds into the region later next week limiting overall storm coverage, although the moisture never really flushes out of the region entirely so may be an isolated chance here and there. Overall benign temperature swings as we remain within a few degrees of climatological normals. Murky thereafter but current guidance not pointing to anything large scale nor significant within this time frame at this time. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1008 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Still anticipating the formation of MVFR to IFR producing fog/mist and stratus early this morning, especially targeting KCIU and KMBL. Expect fog/mist and stratus to rapidly burn off after sunrise, leaving behind VFR conditions under some scattered high clouds and relatively high based cumulus. Light winds with local lake breeze development this afternoon. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...MSB/ELD SHORT TERM...ELD LONG TERM...JLD AVIATION...MSB