506
FXUS63 KAPX 051905
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
305 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple rounds of showers and storms continue into tonight.

- A few lingering showers and thunderstorms the remainder of
  this Holiday weekend.

- Perhaps more organized and impactful showers and storms to
  kick off next work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

The main weather maker in the short-term continues to be a
longwave trough and its associated deepening low pressure. This
feature will support the continued development of showers/
storms across Northern Michigan into tonight. The aforementioned
low is expected to depart the forecast area later tonight.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:

- Details: Scattered showers across parts of northern Michigan
  will continue to expand in coverage from west to east this
  afternoon. Some storms have already begun to pop up with the
  main threats possible being large hail, damaging winds, and
  lightning. Aforementioned showers will become scattered to
  isolated for tonight. Patchy fog will be possible early
  Saturday morning as a weak pressure rises move into the region
  along with light/ calm winds. Temperatures will dip into the
  high 50s to low 60s for tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Pattern Synopsis/Pattern Forecast:

Entire mid-range guidance suite and ensemble envelope remains
remarkably consistent...featuring broad mid/upper level
troughing dominating Great Lakes weather well into next week
downstream of rather potent western NOAM heat dome/upper level
ridge axis. This continues to support no prolonged periods of
heat an additional shower/storm concerns through the entirety of
the long term period.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges:

Shower/thunderstorm potential and temperature trends through
the period.

Details:

Looking at diurnally-enhanced showers and perhaps a rumble of
thunder or two Saturday as lingering low level moisture and
pockets of enhanced low level convergence work in tandem with an
uncapped atmosphere. Not expecting coverage to get too out of
hand given exit of primary mid level support...and with limited
cape through the mid levels and weak shear profiles think any
storms will remain below severe limits. More of the same on
Sunday, although likely with even less areal shower coverage as
low level moisture further thins and mid level support becomes
even less supportive with passing of shortwave ridging. Focused
areas of low level convergence along lake breezes and terrain
fluctuations will be key to any isolated shower and storm
development. Otherwise, Sunday looks rather pleasant...with
mostly to partly sunny skies and highs back up into the upper
70s and lower 80s.

Still looking at potentially more active weather heading into
Monday and Tuesday as passing shortwave troughs interact with an
increasingly moisture rich low and mid level environment.
Magnitude and timing of deep layer support for rain generation
continues to remain in question...although will say latest
guidance trends are definitely weaker with forcing mechanisms.
Definitely could see a few stronger storms with some brief heavy
rain potential, but as of now just not seeing any real evidence
for significant severe weather concerns or widespread heavy
rain. Trends are for definitely less active weather as we head
later into next week...with decaying moisture profiles and
evidence of high pressure building into the region. Temperatures
through the week will fall well within the range of what is
considered normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 120 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Showers will continue to track from southwest to northeast this
afternoon ahead of another round of scattered to numerous
storms that are anticipated for this later this afternoon into
this evening. VCTS is included in the TAFs to account for this.
Temporary drops to MVFR/IFR will be possible with any storms
that move over TAF sites. VFR ceilings are forecasted to drop to
IFR (potentially LIFR) later tonight across most of the area.
Winds will shift northerly late tonight into Saturday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NSC
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...NSC