229
FXUS63 KAPX 160644
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
244 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Small chances of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms
  linger into today and this evening.

- Isolated/scattered showers and storms Wednesday with cooler
  weather through the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 244 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...Small chances of showers and storms linger today into this
evening...

High Impact Weather Potential...The chance of non-severe
thunderstorms will linger today into this evening for locations
southeast of a line from APN to CAD.

Cold front continues to make slow eastward progress thru the Western
Great Lakes early this morning...now extending from SE Ontario thru
the Straits area into Southern Wisconsin and Eastern Iowa. Broken
line of showers and storms continue to fire just ahead of this
front...impacting the SE half of our CWA attm. Overall trends have
been downward in both areal coverage and intensity as we head toward
the typical diurnal instability minimum during the early morning
hours. Also...prominent instability axis in advance of the front has
dropped south of our CWA.

Cold front will continue to slowly push southeast thru Northern
Lower Michigan this morning...tending to stall a bit as it reaches
the Saginaw Bay area. Meanwhile...rather sharp upper level trough
axis will begin to swing into the Western Great Lakes region this
afternoon...reaching Upper Michigan and Eastern Wisconsin by 12Z
Wednesday. Arrival of cooler air aloft combined with some increase
in cyclonic flow ahead of this trough...slowed eastward progress of
the surface cold front and the development of lake breeze boundaries
off of Lake Huron this afternoon may very well lead to the
development of some additional showers/isold thunderstorms for our
SE CWA this afternoon/evening. Very limited instability (500 J/kg or
less) and lack of vertical wind shear will keep any storms that
develop today into this evening sub-severe.

High temps this afternoon will range from the mid to upper 70s
across Eastern Upper and NW Lower Michigan to the low 80s near
Saginaw Bay. Low temps tonight will cool into the mid 50s to near 60
degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 244 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

A trough, originating from Canada, will sweep across the Great Lakes
Region for Wednesday. By Thursday, troughing will exit the forecast
area Thursday into Friday, as ridging/ pressure rises move into the
area. Surface high pressure is still expected to build overhead
across the Northern Woods for the second half of the week into next
week, promoting less active weather.

FORECAST DETAILS:

Rain chances will increase as the day goes on Wednesday, with
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms expected.
Precipitation chances will then decrease as we head into Thursday as
aforementioned pressure rises build into the region promoting drier
weather through the week. Northerly winds will filter in cooler,
drier air, making way for cooler daytime temperatures for Wednesday
and Thursday, especially Thursday night. This looks to drop high
temperatures into the upper 60s and 70s through Thursday, with
overnight lows dipping well into the 40s across interior areas
Thursday night with calm winds and clear skies. Temperatures are
then expected to warm back up close to average heading into this
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 100 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Low pressure will continue to push east thru Michigan thru the
morning hours. Showers and storms will continue to move thru
Lower Michigan early this morning...with chances of precip
greatly diminishing thereafter once the low moves east of our
state. Prevailing conditions will remain VFR/MVFR...dropping to
IR within heavier showers and storms early this morning.
Surface winds will become N/NW at 10 to 20 kts this afternoon
and tonight in the wake of the departing low.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MLR
LONG TERM...NSC
AVIATION...MLR