Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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402 FXUS63 KAPX 021320 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 920 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Numerous showers and some thunderstorms tonight, with locally heavy rainfall. - Trending dry for the Independence Day holiday (Thursday). - Heavy rain and stronger storms may return Friday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 914 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Really, not a whole lot to change to that which was inherited. Rain, largely of the light variety, continues to spread northeast into the area this morning. This lead area of rain is outrunning much better upstream forcing and continues to run into a much drier low level environment. Would expect this rain to continue to erode in overall organization through this afternoon, but still expecting at least the threat for light rain and sprinkles to expand further northeast with time. Definitely not expecting any significant rains today....with the heavier rain threat holding off until this evening. A bit on the cooler side today, with high temperatures mostly in the lower and middle 70s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 338 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Pattern/synopsis: High pressure has slid east to upstate NY, and return flow is underway in the western and central lakes (especially west). Low pressure is over southern Manitoba, with a cold front extending south across the eastern Dakotas. Aloft, 500mb ridging heads downstream. The most prominent shortwave trof moves across the upper MS Valley and western lakes late tonight. Forecast: Showers and some embedded thunder are moving across central WI. This will be knocking on the door of MBL by 12Z/8am. Remnant showers will make some inroads into western areas this morning, but there`s no instability here yet. No mention of thunder this morning, just some light showers. This afternoon, destabilization occurs in southern WI/northern IL. This air will advect n and ne-ward, regenerating deep convection. However, forcing here is still muddled and unfocused, and better instability is upstream. Sct showers and a few embedded t-storms will result, with thunder mainly staying w of M-37 in nw lower MI. Into tonight, an increasing low-level jet will interact with the incoming shortwave trof. Moisture transport will increase, with Pwats of 1.75" or higher pushing into the area. Showers and storms will become more numerous, especially late evening and overnight. Instability present here remains meager, and don`t see a svr threat emerging. But reasonable QPF is forecast, especially north of a CAD-Rogers City line. Localized 1-2" rains are possible; unlikely to be a significant problem, though if high end amounts fall on TVC specifically in a short time period, perhaps that changes. For now, best QPF is most likely north of TVC. Max temps in the 70s; enough clouds to keep things from getting too warm. Sticky tonight though, with lows from near 60f to the upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 338 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages: Midlevel ridging currently over the Upper Midwest region will quickly be replaced by upstream troughing, turning the Great Lakes region to a wetter/more active pattern at the start of the long term. Stronger sw flow in the lower levels will transport moisture into the region, proving enough fuel to source multiple rounds of showers and storms throughout the forecast period. The first round of showers and storms will be at the start of the long term as a cold front drapes across Michigan. Post frontal passage should provide a day of dry conditions for the Fourth, but will quickly transition back to a more active weather pattern as a second trough returns to the Great Lakes region (while deepening). This wet pattern is expected to return as early as Friday and continue at times through the entirety of the long term. Primary Forecast Concerns: A cold front continues showers and storms this Wednesday. No severe weather or heavy rainfall expected at this time: A cold front will be draped along Lake Michigan by 12Z Wednesday continuing showers and storms. Most of the forcing will be overnight before the long term period, but light amounts of measurable precip is expected to persist during the daytime on Wednesday. No risk of severe weather is expected during the daytime Wednesday as lingering storms will finally clear by Wednesday evening. Surface low pressure returns active weather this Friday into early next week. Watching for storm potential on Friday: Shortwave midlevel troughing currently over British Columbia will develop surface low pressure over the Canadian rockies and progress to the Great Lakes region by the end of the week. Current ensembles showing evidence of moderate instability to the region as moderately strong midlevel flow will advect southerly moisture into the CWA. Best chance of storms is Friday, but showers are expected to potentially persist through Sunday, leaving Northern Michigan with a relatively blah holiday weekend. Too early to advertise QPF totals or potential for severity of storms, but more details will come with future model runs. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 648 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Some showers are working into the MBL area now, well ahead of a cold front that will enter the region Wed morning. This activity will tend to weaken/diminish as it moves in, with just sct showers during the day. Showers become more numerous/widespread tonight (with a few TSRA possible), with lowering cigs and vsbys. Have MVFR conditions by late tonight at CIU/PLN/MBL. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Wednesday for LHZ348. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ341- 342-344>346. && $$ UPDATE...MSB/MLR SHORT TERM...JZ LONG TERM...SJC AVIATION...JZ