805
FXUS64 KAMA 131931
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
231 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Not much excitement to be excited about in the short-term. A
strong upper-level ridge is centered over the central Rockies
leading to the promise of hot temperatures. There is a roughly 5%
chance for a shower or thunderstorm to move into the Oklahoma
Panhandle from Colorado and/or Kansas this evening, but all signs
indicate this activity would be in the process of weakening.
Sunday features even less chance for rain and slightly hotter
temperatures with most of the Panhandles at or above 100 degrees.
Some locations may reach or slightly exceed 105 degrees... heat
advisory criteria... specifically in portions of the northeastern
combined Panhandles and along the Canadian River Valley. Palo Duro
Canyon should stay around 101-103 degrees today and tomorrow due
to an unfavorable wind speed and orientation for heat enhancement.


Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Monday looks like another hot day with widespread 100 degree
temperatures. Again, some locations may reach 105 degrees in the
northeastern combined Panhandles and along the Canadian River
Valley.

Monday night and through Tuesday, Models indicate that the upper-
level ridge may attempt to retrograde as a seasonably robust upper-
level trough dips from central Canada into the Great Lakes. This
would introduce northwesterly flow aloft for much of the Panhandles.

Tuesday: Models agree that a cold front is forecast to move into at
least the northern portion of the CWA Tuesday morning, but that is
where the agreement ends regarding this feature. GFS and ECMWF stall
out the front throughout Tuesday before surging through the rest of
the CWA Tuesday evening. Meanwhile, NAM doesn`t stall the front and
brings it through almost all of the Panhandles by the mid-afternoon.
The difference between the models may be related to the convection
that the NAM has Monday night across Kansas, but the GFS and ECMWF
don`t have; any outflow from these storms may give the front extra
`momentum`. Nonetheless, behind the front will be richer low-level
moisture with dew points in the upper-50s to low-60s.

Tuesday evening and through the night: The GFS and NAM suggest a
shortwave embedded in the flow could help develop thunderstorms on
the Rockies in northern New Mexico and Colorado late Tuesday
afternoon. The thunderstorms that are closer to the stronger forcing
(i.e., Colorado) could grow upscale into an MCS and, depending on
its track, could clip at least the northeastern combined Panhandles.
Meanwhile some of the thunderstorms off the higher terrain in
southern Colorado/northern New Mexico could wander into the
Panhandles from the west and northwest. If the GFS and NAM are
correct with the placement of the shortwave trough, strong to severe
thunderstorms are a possibility given the favorable low-level
moisture, mid-level lapse rates, and wind profile. However, it`s
too early to get into details beyond that.

Wednesday: The upper-level ridge continues to retrograde with the
flow over the Panhandles remaining northwesterly or turning more
north-northwesterly. The latter would not be the most ideal for
having thunderstorms move off the high terrain, but is still
plausible. The better bet would be any convection that can develop
in eastern Colorado/western Kansas in association with an embedded
shortwave trough. The most favored time for thunderstorms would be
Wednesday night.

Confidence decreases in the large-scale pattern decreases further
Thursday and beyond.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

VFR conditions are expected through this forecast period. Breezy
winds are ongoing at KGUY and KDHT with winds around 20 kts
gusting to 30 kts which will last through this afternoon before
weakening to around 10 kts tonight.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                70 100  71 100 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  72 104  70 104 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              68 102  66 101 /  10   0   0   0
Borger TX                  72 106  72 106 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              69 103  70 104 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  68  98  67  99 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               70  98  71 101 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 66 101  65 103 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  69 103  67 104 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                67  99  67 101 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                71 103  72 103 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   70 100  70 100 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                70 100  71 101 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              71 101  73 103 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52