166
FXUS64 KAMA 141123
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
623 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

The latest 08Z satellite analysis still shows the center of the
main 596 decameter anti-cyclonic feature centered over the Four
Corners Region with its extend of large scale UL subsidence well
to the east into the southern High Plains. This does include the
Texas Panhandle. With that said, southwesterly winds becoming more
southerly this afternoon will advect +30C to +32C for the NE
combined Panhandles near the most pronounced area of UL
subsidence. Along with Palo Duro Canyon, the northeastern combined
Panhandles is where the highest probabilities of reaching and/or
exceeding 105 degrees this afternoon is expected, in which
headlines for Heat exist this afternoon. For the remainder of the
Panhandles, high temperatures this afternoon will range from 99 to
104 degrees.

Going into tomorrow, some of the latest 14/00Z model and numerical
data shows the main center of the H500 high pressure system
slowly shift south along the AZ/NM stateline. If this result holds
true, more of the H500 northwesterly component to the wind will
be introduced. Some of the convection that develops along the
NM/CO high terrain may reach the far NW Panhandles by late
tomorrow afternoon with a brief shower or storm. But confidence
does not exceed 20% chance of occurrence at this time. The
continued weather pattern of heat, with additional headlines is
likely for a good percentage of the combined Panhandles is
expected tomorrow afternoon. High temperatures tomorrow will range
from 100 to 108 degrees.

Meccariello

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

High pressure to our west should loosen its grip on the
Panhandles, allowing a cold front to slide towards the area on
Tuesday. The question for Tuesday is how far south will the front
progress before stalling? This will have an impact on temperatures
and precipitation chances for the day. More aggressive guidance
such as the NAM show the front marching through the area, keeping
high temperatures in the low 90s. Other models such as the Euro
and GFS show the front losing steam and stalling over the
Panhandles, allowing temps to climb right back to the triple
digits. Doubts exist regarding how much dry air will intrude
behind the front, but models agree adequate moisture should be in
place for precipitation chances. A minor shortwave disturbance
looks to ride the ridge across the region and take advantage of
whatever moisture may be available along and behind the front
later Tuesday evening. Given decent confidence amongst guidance,
have left the NBM POPs of 30-60% across the northern Panhandles
during the evening to overnight hours. Again, the focus for peak
convective potential will likely depend on placement of the front. If
a drier post frontal airmass exists though, current precipitation
probabilities may be over inflated altogether.

Looking ahead to midweek, similar questions linger about how much
moisture is going to stick around from day to day. Northwest flow
aloft as the ridge retreats would favor additional shots at
showers and storms through the day Wednesday, as there may be
another reinforcing front to provide additional moisture to the
region. Either way, temperatures will be markedly cooler Wednesday
onward, with highs in the 80s to low 90s currently forecast
through the weekend. Model agreement drastically declines beyond
Wednesday, but we might be able to look forward to daily rain and
storm chances to mitigate any increasing drought concerns that may
arise.

Harrel

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

VFR conditions are expected throughout the 12Z TAF period at all
TAF sites. Winds will be out of the south and southwest at 10 to
15 kts with gusts over 20 kts at times. Skies will be mostly
clear.

Meccariello

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX               102  72 102  72 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                 105  75 106  72 /   0   0   0  10
Boise City OK             103  69 103  68 /  10   0  10  20
Borger TX                 107  75 108  75 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX             104  70 105  71 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  99  69 100  70 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               99  72 102  73 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                102  67 103  67 /   0   0   0  10
Guymon OK                 105  71 105  70 /   0   0   0  10
Hereford TX               100  68 102  70 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX               105  75 106  74 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                  101  72 102  72 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX               101  72 103  73 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX             102  72 104  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ003>005-008>010-317.

OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ002-003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...29