155
FXUS64 KAMA 082346
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
646 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

The last of the rain from earlier this morning has moved south
and out of all the Panhandles with mostly dry conditions this
afternoon. Monsoon flow from the Four Corners Region may provide
an additional shower or thunderstorm for the far western combined
Panhandles moving in from New Mexico, but otherwise, mostly dry
for the remainder of the Panhandles. Tonight will feature light
and variable winds with mostly clear skies. Lows will range from
the mid 50s in the NW to lower 60s for the southern TX Panhandle.
Monsoon patter continues for tomorrow with a few showers or storms
for the far western Panhandles once again by around the afternoon
and evening hours. But otherwise, dry conditions continue. High
temperatures tomorrow will be about 10 degrees warmer compared to
today with highs ranging from the mid 80s to lower 90s. Low
temperatures tomorrow night will range from the upper 50s to mid
60s.

Meccariello

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Wednesday may be the last day of active weather we see for a bit
as models see us hold onto northwesterly upper-level flow for one
more day. This will allow for any activity forming off the
southern Rockies a chances to move over the western Panhandles
during the afternoon and evening hours. However, the window of
opportunity will small with latest giving only a 15 to 20% chances
of storms occurring during the afternoon and early evening. Once
we head into the overnight, however, chances will rapidly diminish
as models see the strong 500mb high over the Great Basin shift
east and pull the Panhandles under its influence. This shift, will
see flow over the Panhandles either turn completely northerly or
nearly stagnate, which will make it hard for the regular afternoon
storms to move across the Panhandles. Expect these drier
conditions to last clear into next week as model agreement has no
expectations of the 500mb high moving or diminishing. Otherwise,
look for temperatures to be on the rise under these dry and
stagnate conditions. Look for most locations to return to the 90s
as early as Wednesday with chances at triple digits by the
weekend.

Scoleri

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Conditions will likely remain VFR for all three TAF sites through
the next 24 hours with rare very light winds prevailing even
through the day Tuesday. There will be some SCT TSTMs in NM on
Tue aftn and evening. A few of these may cross the border very
late in the period (perhaps even after 00Z Wed), but chances of
these storms impacting AMA or DHT are less than 20 percent and
therefore it is not addressed in the TAFs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                61  88  63  91 /  10   0  10  20
Beaver OK                  60  88  62  94 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              56  86  58  90 /  10  10  10  10
Borger TX                  63  93  67  96 /  10   0  10  10
Boys Ranch TX              60  90  63  93 /  10   0  20  10
Canyon TX                  60  87  62  90 /  10   0  10  20
Clarendon TX               61  88  63  92 /  10   0   0  10
Dalhart TX                 56  87  59  91 /  10  10  10  20
Guymon OK                  58  88  59  93 /   0   0  10  10
Hereford TX                59  88  62  90 /  10   0  20  20
Lipscomb TX                60  89  64  95 /  10   0   0  10
Pampa TX                   60  87  64  92 /  10   0  10  10
Shamrock TX                62  89  63  94 /  10   0   0  10
Wellington TX              63  90  64  95 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...88