957
FXUS64 KAMA 091138
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
638 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Much quieter across the region this morning compared to the last
several mornings, but that does unfortunately mean we are not
potentially getting rainfall. Dry and warmer conditions look to
prevail today for most of the area as we are on the western side of
the departing upper level trough. There remains a chance(20-30%)
of showers and storms coming out of New Mexico later this
afternoon and evening thanks to the persistent monsoon pattern
present. Most of these storms should be confined to the western
third to half of the Panhandles and diminish through the late
evening hours. Another round of these storms will again be
possible on Wednesday we we do remain under northwest flow aloft,
allowing any storms that develop in Colorado/New Mexico to make
their way over. As for highs, we will start to slowly creep warmer
through the next two days with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s
today, followed by mostly low 90s tomorrow.

Culin

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

There is not much interesting to say about this long-term period. An
upper-level ridge will be stationed generally over the Four Corner
states leading to hot and mostly dry conditions. That said, there
may be just enough mid-level moisture Thursday afternoon that, if
convective temperatures can be breached, an isolated thunderstorm or
two cannot be ruled out in the southern TX Panhandle. Gusty winds
would be possible. Don`t get too excited, though; there`s inherently
very low predictability with this scenario and thus the NBM gives it
a 10% chance or less. But that`s the extent to the intrigue of the
long-term.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

VFR conditions prevailing and will continue today. Winds initially
out of the northwest to west will shift out of the south this
afternoon. Some showers or storms may possibly affect KDHT this
afternoon but overall confidence in this is low enough not to
mention in the TAFs at this time.

Culin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                90  66  92  63 /   0  20  30  20
Beaver OK                  89  64  94  63 /   0   0   0  10
Boise City OK              88  59  91  60 /  10  20  20   0
Borger TX                  94  67  97  66 /   0  20  30  10
Boys Ranch TX              92  64  94  63 /  10  30  30  20
Canyon TX                  89  64  91  62 /  10  20  30  20
Clarendon TX               89  66  92  64 /   0  10  30  10
Dalhart TX                 89  59  92  59 /  20  20  20  10
Guymon OK                  89  61  94  62 /   0  10  10   0
Hereford TX                91  64  92  62 /  10  30  30  20
Lipscomb TX                90  66  94  65 /   0  10  10  10
Pampa TX                   89  65  92  63 /   0  10  30  10
Shamrock TX                91  66  93  65 /   0   0  20  10
Wellington TX              92  66  94  66 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...28