688
FXUS64 KAMA 091905
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
205 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

What remains of today as well as tomorrow could be our best
chances for showers and thunderstorms for this week mostly thanks
to the still present northwesterly flow seen in the upper-levels.
This flow will aid in moving any convection started off the
southern Rockies over the Western Panhandles for this evening and
Wednesday. Despite the decent northwesterly flow, however, chances
are still rather limited with latest CAMs seeing best chances for
isolated storms until late this evening. Severe potential is not
that great either, with most CAMs seeing less than 100o J/kg of
MLCAPE. Still a severe wind gust can not be fully ruled out,
especially if the inverted V soundings the RAP is presenting comes
to fruition.

Rather, the better chances may follow Wednesday afternoon with
models seeing a short-wave move through and act as a boundary for
the day. As it stands latest CAMs are seeing the potential for
showers around and south of I-40 with guidance seeing POPs around
20 to 30% for the afternoon and evening. Severe potential is
better in terms of MLCAPE with most models seeing 1000 to 2000
J/kg present across I-40 and south. However, the shear is not the
greatest with only a handful of models seeing effective bulk shear
near 20kt. Once again the main threat may be more on the wind
side of things with the sounding and DCAPE suggest a severe wind
gust can not be ruled out from a collapsing thunderstorm.
Otherwise, drier conditions look to follow in the overnight as
models see the stronger upper-level high begin to move in. As for
temperatures, look for them to be on the rise today and tomorrow
with most locations returning to the low to mid 90s both
afternoons.


Scoleri

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Warm and dry will likely be the main themes clear into the next
week as many models see the strong 500mb high pressure system
shift east and place the Panhandles underneath it clear through
Monday. This will cause the upper-level flow to shift to a more
northerly to near stagnate flow which will make it hard for
anything that develops off the western mountain ranges to move
through. The only exception may be Thursday, when flow could still
be strong enough in afternoon. However, confidence in such a
outcome is not high given that would require high dewpoints to
hold, which not many models are expecting. Otherwise, the main
issue for what remains of the week will be the continue rising
temperatures. As it stands, all locations will look to be in the
mid to upper 90s as early as Friday, with chances at triple digits
getting better as we head into the weekend.

Scoleri

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

For the 18Z TAFs, isolated thunderstorms may move into western
sections late this afternoon and evening. However, due to expected
sparse coverage and uncertainty on where any storms will be
located this far out in time, have opted not to mention at the
terminal sites for this forecast cycle. Otherwise, VFR conditions
are expected through 18Z Wednesday.

02

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                65  94  64  94 /  10  30  20  10
Beaver OK                  63  96  64  97 /   0  10   0   0
Boise City OK              59  91  60  93 /  10  10   0   0
Borger TX                  67  99  67 100 /  10  20  10  10
Boys Ranch TX              64  95  64  96 /  20  30  20  10
Canyon TX                  64  92  61  92 /  20  30  20  10
Clarendon TX               66  94  65  94 /   0  30  10  10
Dalhart TX                 59  93  59  94 /  10  20  10   0
Guymon OK                  61  94  61  97 /  10  10   0   0
Hereford TX                64  94  62  94 /  30  30  20  10
Lipscomb TX                65  96  65  98 /   0  20  10   0
Pampa TX                   64  94  64  94 /  10  30  10  10
Shamrock TX                66  95  65  96 /   0  30   0  10
Wellington TX              67  96  66  97 /   0  20  10  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...02